Is he “baaack” — or is he now on his way out?
Just as Arnold Schwarzenegger smoothly made the change from body builder to movie star…..just as he seamlessly moved from the world of Hollywood to the world of Sacramento….California’s Governor has now executed a MAJOR shift.
Will it prove to be an artful shift — or will it be perceived as clumsy and backfire?
He successfully ran for governor in a recall presenting himself as the quintessential outsider/independent: a Republican, but not too Republican, so he peeled off many Democrats and Independents who joined often distrustful conservative Republicans. Once in office he moved a bit more to the right — GOPers were happy to have a man in Sacramento while others charged he had morphed into a more traditional Republican governor, playing to the right.
He put forth several special initiatives to voters but they were repudiated at the polls in November. Then came the inklings of a shift: more talk of bipartisanship; several stances that were pointedly more moderate; talk of giving some disputed money back to schools. Etc.
And, then, last night: a notable move to the left which might please some voters but could rile his GOP supporters. One radio talk show host in Northern California branded Schwarzenegger “Schwarzenkennedy,” after the Governor’s Kennedy-clan wife Maria Shriver, whom conservatives fear has influence over her husband. Here’s what he did, as reported by the Washington Post:
Arnold Schwarzenegger proposed extensive new spending for highways, schools, air quality and ports Thursday as he attempts to move to the political middle and regain his footing after a disastrous second year as California’s governor.
In his second State of the State address, Schwarzenegger proposed a $70 billion bond issue, the biggest in California history, which over the next decade would pay for new schools, roads, better ports and improved air quality, as well as new levees and jails. He also backed a dollar increase in the minimum wage…
….The proposals mark a change for the Republican governor, who took office in 2003 after a dramatic recall election in which he defeated Democrat Gray Davis. Democratic and Republican lawmakers agreed that Schwarzenegger’s proposals — which also include new funding for solar power projects — are designed to appeal to Democratic voters, who are critical to his reelection hopes.
“He’s hitting all the Democratic notes in the song,” said Fabian Nuez, the Democratic speaker of the Assembly from Los Angeles. “There’s no question that his tone has changed dramatically.”
The speech in Sacramento signaled an about-face from the confrontational tone Schwarzenegger took in his first State of the State speech last year. He then called for merit pay for teachers, lowering pensions for state workers and a far-reaching change in the way legislative districts are drawn.
This was not a teeney-weeney move to the left. This was a MAJOR LEAP. And it’ll be interesting to see how it plays with voters in the center (who polls show are disappointed with Schwarzenegger and deserted him en masse), on the left (who distrust him and generally have contempt for him), and on the right (who originally didn’t like him but held their noses and went along with him because it was a way for the GOP to regain a firm foothold in Sacramento).
The meaning is crystal clear, as the Los Angeles Times notes:
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s drive to recapture his image as a political centrist will make it harder for the two Democrats vying for his job to cast him as a conservative Republican out of step with middle-of-the-road Californians.
In a State of the State speech today that framed his campaign for reelection, Schwarzenegger minimized opportunities for the Democrats — state Treasurer Phil Angelides and Controller Steve Westly — to draw sharp contrasts with him. Neither Democrat could fault Schwarzenegger’s calls for vast public construction projects, a higher minimum wage, cheaper prescription drugs or a freeze in university enrollment fees — even if they questioned the timing or details.
The governor’s new focus on matters with potentially broad appeal marks a sharp departure from his strategy last year of playing to his conservative base with an agenda that antagonized Democrats and organized labor.
By neutralizing some key issues, his political shift also heightens the likelihood of a gubernatorial race defined as much by disputes about character as by partisan divisions, analysts said. A central question is apt to be whether Schwarzenegger is motivated more by core beliefs or a quest for personal success.
“It would be very hard for someone to determine from these various positions precisely what Schwarzenegger stands for,” said Thomas Hollihan, a media and politics professor at USC’s Annenberg School for Communication.
In the two months since voters rejected the four ballot measures he described as crucial to California’s future, Schwarzenegger’s moves toward the center have largely been a matter of emphasis, not substance. His support for raising the minimum wage is long-standing, but he drew more attention to it today by bringing it up in a high-profile speech. (He still disagrees with Democrats on how much and how fast.)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger unveiled Thursday for California voters an ambitious marketing campaign for a decidedly more consumer-friendly political product — an improved elected official and candidate who is “wiser” and focused solely on “the needs of the people.”
The latest version of Schwarzenegger, as introduced in his 25-minute State of the State speech, marked a dramatic contrast from last year’s model — one who railed about “special interests,” threw out bold promises about “blowing up boxes,” and set off so many firestorms that he ended up consumed by a disastrous special election defeat.
This time the tone was conciliatory not combative, a can-do attitude, but with a dollop of realism and self-deprecating humor thrown in.
“What a difference a year makes,” he said to chuckles, noting that his fortunes — like that of formerly No. 1 college football darling, USC — have changed overnight.
Schwarzenegger still has considerable charm (although it seems to be working with a notably smaller pool of voters these days).
Attempting to rekindle his image as a bipartisan populist, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Thursday urged cooperation among lawmakers and proposed a sweeping $222 billion public works program that would require the largest bond package in state history.
The governor’s annual State of the State speech addressed issues basic to the lives of most Californians, including more funding for public schools, rebuilding freeways and transit systems, improving air quality and raising the minimum wage.
He asked Californians to move beyond a year filled with acrimony over the special election he had called and devoid of significant political accomplishment.
“I have absorbed my defeat. I have learned my lesson. And the people, who always have the last word, sent a clear message – cut the warfare, cool the rhetoric, find common ground and fix the problems together,” Schwarzenegger said before a packed Assembly chamber. “To my fellow Californians, I say, ‘Message received.'”
The governor’s speech was his third State of the State address but was widely viewed as among the most pivotal appearances of his political career. Facing re-election in November, his task was to persuade Californians to set aside any lingering bitterness over last year’s election campaign and regain the bipartisan image that made him so popular his first year in office.
You can’t say this is “too little” too late…but is it too late? People outside of California don’t quite understand the bitterness and anger that Schwarzenegger has aroused in some quarters. That’s not good for someone who needs a bipartisan coalition win re-election. The question is: is it POSSIBLE for him to again get a significant number of Democrats to vote for him? Independents may be more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt — but even there he may have his work cut out for him.
His biggest task will clearly be among conservative Republicans who are likely to oppose many of his proposed new measures. A sampling yesterday of several HOURS of conservative talk show hosts in several cities showed great skepticism and even actual bitterness among the talk show hosts and many of their Republican callers. Some were particularly irked because the Governor made no mention of California’s problem with illegal immigration.
So now Schwarzenegger has cast himself as someone who admits he made some mistakes but wants to bring everyone together. Have his mistakes made that virtually impossible? And, as he reaches out to Democrats, independents and other centrists, is he in danger of losing what he began to embrace as his base — GOP voters?
It has been said that Schwarzenegger only got elected as a Republican because it was during a recall and he didn’t have to run in a primary. Will he face GOP opposition next time? And, if he gets the nomination (which no one is questioning he’ll get at this point, at least) will GOP voters turn out for him — or decide to stay home? That could mean the end of his political career if the people who’ve already left his fold don’t come back.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.