The latest national polls show Rick Santorum to be in a statistical dead heat with Barack Obama. Although national polls are inferior to state-by-state polls, this should be a sobering reality check to those who claim Rick Santorum could “never” defeat Barack Obama. The latest ABC News/Washington post poll shows Obama ahead of Santorum by only 3 points and the latest Rasmussen shows Santorum ahead by 1 point. A look at polling trends over the last few weeks shows that, regardless of anybody’s personal opinion, the more exposure Rick Santorum gets with voters nationwide the better he does.
A few progressives have been tittering gleefully about Santorum’s sudden rise, but for those of us who oppose Santorum’s social conservatism, this is genuinely frightening. American history–including very recent American history!–has given us more than one “he could never win” President, with sorry opponents crying into their beers on election night, heaving “how could we possibly have lost to that guy?” sobs.
One cannot wish away the fact that Obama is vulnerable. Despite improving economic news, the economy is still in terrible shape, and while some economic signs are positive, there is still reason to believe things may turn sour again before November. Voters for whom the economy is the main issue are often prone to throw out whoever’s currently in office just on general principles, and an unemployment rate of “only” 8% may look better than we had a year or two ago, but there is no sane analysis which would call that “good” by American standards. And who knows what a sudden move by Iran or other belligerent powers might do to change the game? Such an event might play to the President’s favor, but might not, with no way to predict that in advance.
The quite sober and rational Doug Mataconis would likely argue that my point is moot because short of a major scandal or other shocker, Romney cannot lose the nomination. But I must dissent. Santorum has already publicly offered Gingrich the Vice Presidential slot, and he and Gingrich look all set to pull most of the delegates out of the remaining races in March. Gingrich’s ego may be too big to take such an offer, but on the other hand, he might be foolish to say no. If Gingrich were to pull out before primaries in places like California and New York and throw his support to Santorum, the outcome is far from certain. In California, Santorum is less than five points behind Romney, and closing. New York, Pennsylvania? Let’s remember where Santorum is from, then take Gingrich out of the race as “the other Anti-Romney.” A Gingrich pullout within the next month could completely change the race.
It is also less likely, but still plausible, that Santorum and Gingrich could stay all the way through to the convention and, if Romney has only a plurality, pool their own delegates together to mount a strong challenge. It has been more than a half-century since this country has seen a brokered convention, but the way things are now it is hardly impossible.
I would concede that most of the odds continue to favor Governor Romney to win the nomination. But I believe that it is foolish to believe Romney is an inevitability. I am even less inclined to believe it is inevitable that a Santorum/Gingrich ticket would lose to Obama/Biden.
(This item cross-posted to Dean’s World.)
The copyrighted cartoon by Randall Enos, Cagle Cartoons, is licensed to run on TMV.
Dean Esmay is the author of Methuselah’s Daughter. He has contributed to Dean’s World, Huffington Post, A Voice for Men, Pajamas Media. Neither left nor right wing, neither libertarian nor socialist.