Categorically, Mark Sanford died in 2010. The married father of four’s three day leave of South Carolina as Governor against the knowledge of his staff to visit his “soulmate in Argentina ,” made him a candidate for impeachment.
That came to pass but no one thought he would seriously consider seeking ofice again, much less win it. When he entered South Carolina’s First Congressional district following the appointment of Tim Scott as Senator, he wasn’t even viewed as a factor to win the primary. He did emerge on top, however and prevailed in the runoff.
Two weeks ago, after a number of questionable campaign moves, Sanford was as good as dead in the general as well, so much so that, Republicans in Washington and South Carolina wouldn’t touch his campaign with a ten foot pole.
Elizabeth Colbert-Busch meanwhile, seemed to have hit the sky. The sister of a comedian, her campaign was picture perfect. She had money and tailor-made her platform to fit a district that gave Mitt Romney 58%, and which hadn’t elected a Democrat to the House since 1978, perhaps with the exception of same-sex marriage.
Suddenly, things changed. The polls tightened, Republican help suddenly appeared, and as the polls were closing, for the first time for a headline election in recent memory (perhaps since Bush vs. Gore before Florida closed), there was no predicting which way it would go. Election Night started out close, but the final results weren’t. Sanford won 54-42%, winning district wide by 17,000 votes.
In winning back his seat, Sanford took all five counties, including Charleston , which Obama had carried. Many country club/stainless steel Republicans as opposed to hard-line religious folks. The one bright spot for Colbert-Busch was that she trailed Sanford by the same 3,000 vote margin as Charleston . Obama had carried Charleston with 50%. He took just 37% in Beaufort. Sanford is the third member of class of ’94 whose name began with”s”to return this year. Matt Salmon and Steve Stockman returned in January (the latter, like Sanford, overcoming lomg odds). Similarly, Charlie Bass and Brian Bilbray(class of ’94 Congressmen whose initials begin with “b”) lost their seats November.
So is it redemption or was it a genuine case of the partisans coming how? Both. People voted their party. Just as Massachusetts re-elected Ted Kennedy in 1970 in a Democratic state and Louisianan’s opted to keep David Vitter in the Senate in an area that is conservative. In other words, it was ideology, stupid. Yet Sanford did hold Republicans in the primary, in part by talking forgiveness, and that can’t be discounted either. Sanford said that GOD was not about second chances, but third, fourth, and fifth. Well, that’s questionable.
One sect of the Democratic party that has reason to be discouraged might be southern Dems.Their candidate had $,name rec, and ran an impressive campaign, particularly for a first time candidate, but still fell to a man all knew was flawed.
What does that mean for future races? Specifically, what how should Democrats feel about broadening the landscape in 2014?? SC-1 wouldn’t have told us much much however the election went. Mid-term won’t take shape until year begins. And much will happen on the national landscape that can and will change the entire narrative. But we can draw ever the slightest clue. And while the national party as a whole won’t be affected, I don’t think the Democrats are out of line for being the tiniest bit nervous.
Romney did 5% worse in Georgia and Democrats are hoping a bloody primary will help them But Sanford didn’t win by 1%. In Louisiana , where Mary Landrieu leads the polls, Obama actually did about half a point better than in Sanford’s district, and unlike SC-1, the state has a large Afriocan-American population. But in Arkansas, Romney took 62%.
It may not be fair to draw too many conclusions from SC-1,particularly so far out. But if Sanford could prevail with all of his flaws, it certainly can’t be encouraging to Democrats who face real races in hostile territory, and Republicans without them.
Sanford gave us reason to laugh three years ago. He gave us many reasons to laugh when he debated a Nancy Pelosi cut-out (she won) and trespassed on his wife’s property. What little credibility he seemed to have was further eroded when he couldn’t get his reasoning for being on the property straight. .But hard to laugh tonight. And he’s getting married. His bride was on stage with him.Congrats.
All I’m saying is that, for Democrats, the “trail” post-Sanford may be long and hard.