The world is run by those who show up, and the most important factor in any election is the identity of the voters. Who bothers to show up at the polls?
This question is especially crucial in a midterm election such as 2006. The voter turnout will be much smaller than in the 2004 presidential election. It is always true that a substantial number of people who had cast a ballot for President in the prior election skip the off-year contests. But how many fewer voters will there be in 2006? And who are the ones who turn up and the ones who drop out?
To answer these queries, we have to go to the historical videotape. First, let’s take the long view–the really, really long view. Take a look at the following….