THE SCANDAL-TINGED SIX: Whose campaigns are dead on arrival and who will survive to run again?
Last week the Crystal Ball examined fifteen freshman Representatives (fourteen Democrats and one Republican) who we consider to be endangered in November 2008. As promised, now we turn to part two of our list of the imperiled: the “Scandal-tinged Six.” Here, the partisan tables are turned, as five Republicans and one Democrat are in danger of losing their seats because of scandal. Some of the ethical issues involved in these cases have surfaced since the last election in 2006, while others are older but still-developing news.
In 2006, scandals came in two main varieties: Abramoff-related and Foley-gate. Several “associates” of lobbyist Jack Abramoff went down to fiery electoral defeats or had to resign to avoid further embarrassment. The voters didn’t quite finish the job, however, and some Representatives on this list represent a “second helping” to vengeful voters who pledge to do a more thorough Housecleaning this time around. Mark Foley’s indiscretions were widely reported during the last election cycle, but ultimately the primary effects of the revelations were limited to his own district. The secondary effects, however, spread nationwide as Republicans couldn’t seem to catch a break throughout the entire autumn campaigning season.
This year, the U.S. Attorneys scandal immediately took center stage, but waiting in the wings was an assortment of dirty laundry, just waiting to be aired. Resignation rumors, cash found in the freezer, and FBI raids have been the order of the day, and some Representatives are already feeling heat from voters, with Election Day still over a year away. The picture is still a little fuzzy this far out, as even dedicated and experienced political observers can never quite imagine what could possibly come next in these developing stories, but these six Representatives will have plenty of questions to answer leading up to the next election (assuming they last that long).
A word of warning: not all of the seats listed here will change parties in 2008. Several members in this category face stiff primary opposition, as some challengers argue that the incumbent will lose if they are allowed to advance to the general election.
Also bear in mind that, with Congress, scandals spring eternal. As 2008 approaches, this list may grow, rather than shrink. There are already other Representatives in hot water for one reason or another, but only time will tell whether those circumstances will boil over into a full-fledged scandal. No matter what, expect seats to be lost as challengers capitalize on the “dirty deeds” of the previous occupants.