Every midterm year, the lion’s share of the attention seems to go to the U.S. Senate and House contests at the national level, even though the governorships are arguably more important. Despite the unusual all-Senate match-up of Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008, the statehouses are still the incubators for most modern presidents (Carter, Reagan, Clinton, G.W. Bush). Moreover, the 36 gubernatorial battles and the state legislative elections that will accompany them in 2010 will determine what happens during the 2011 post-Census redistricting of the U.S. House and the state legislatures themselves. More than a few House seats will shift parties because of the partisan line-drawing that results.
Therefore, over the next several issues, we’ll take a look at the early maneuvering for governor in every state with such a race. The candidates are already reasonably clear in a handful of states. In others, we have a good idea about the nominee of one party (usually the incumbent). But in quite a few states, where the incumbent is retiring or term limited, a free-for-all is in store. There’s nothing like an open governorship to release the pent-up ambitions of politicians angling for their chance to run the show.
As we open up the 2010 gubernatorial cycle, we find that Democrats control 28 governorships to the Republicans’ 22. The Democrats added one state in 2008 (Missouri) after putting six more governorships in their column in 2006. So effectively, what was GOP domination of 28 to 22 governorships just a few years ago flipped to a 29 to 21 Democratic majority. That lasted just a few weeks until President-elect Obama chose Gov. Janet Napolitano to be his Secretary of Homeland Security. Napolitano was succeeded by a Republican, Secretary of State Jan Brewer–bringing the gubernatorial total to precisely what it was before the 2008 elections: 28 Democrats and 22 Republicans.