As of yesterday, there were exactly 475 days left until Election Day 2008. Since the Crystal Ball’s last Senate update, filed exactly 600 days before the election, there have been a number of interesting developments that merit mention. To begin with, there will now be a total of 34 seats on the ballot, instead of the 33 originally planned. This, of course, is a result of Wyoming Senator Craig Thomas’s passing.
Per the Seventeenth Amendment and Wyoming state election law, newly appointed Senator John Barrasso will face a special election on the same day as the 33 “Class Two” Senators who are up for re-election in 2008. [Note to students: Since only a third of the Senate is up every two years, the senators were divided into three “classes”, right from the beginning of the Republic, so that the elections could be properly staggered. Class Two comes up in 2008.] Whoever wins the election will inherit the rest of Thomas’s term which, as a Class One senator last elected in 2006, lasts until 2012. Those four years are almost as good as a whole term for entrenching an incumbent, so don’t expect Barrasso to get a completely free pass. Even though he will be a bit weaker than a typical incumbent in 2008, Barrasso is a substantial favorite in GOP-dominated Wyoming. His focus must be on pleasing conservative GOP activists in the Cowboy State. If not seriously opposed in the primary–and some of the big players like almost-Senator Tom Sansonetti (the GOP’s preferred choice for the seat who was not chosen by Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal) have pledged their support to Barrasso already–the new senator will be the favorite in November. However, Barrasso may–may–have to worry about a primary opponent, including top-three replacement candidate former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead, and Wyoming House Majority Leader Colin Simpson. As for the general election, Wyoming was the second Reddest state in 2004 and the Reddest in 2000, with Bush garnering 69% of the vote both times, so the odds of a Democratic takeover are still slim, especially since Governor Freudenthal has said he will not run.
What about the national picture? The Republicans will have to play defense with 22 seats, while the Democrats will be defending only 12. This disadvantage is lessened slightly when you take into account the large number of those seats that are considered to be safe or that will likely favor the incumbent’s party. When looking only at seats that the Crystal Ball considers to be “probably competitive”, however, the Republicans will still have to defend five seats and the Democrats only two. As of the moment, there has been just one announced retirement, Republican Senator Wayne Allard of Colorado, but more open seats could be on the ballot by Election Day, as at least four Republicans and one Democrat may be considering retirement. If the Republicans have to defend more open seats in November 2008 than do the Democrats, this would certainly put a damper on their hopes of regaining the Senate majority, a task that already appears considerable.