PLUS: More Gubernatorial “Street Sense”
The votes are in from yesterday’s Kentucky gubernatorial primary, and Democrats will have to try hard to lose this race in November.
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Why are governor’s races important for 2008? Anyone who has been involved in Presidential politics will tell you that the only endorsements that matter are the gubernatorial ones. U.S. Senators rarely have large machines at the ready within states, but Governors do. Each Chief Executive appoints thousands of officials, who take their cue from the Governor and will reliably show up for rallies and “volunteer” efforts.
Governors also have hundreds of large contributors, who can be steered to fund the party’s Presidential campaign and associated get-out-the-vote efforts. And Governors are the only politicians who can create news opportunity after news opportunity for their favored nominee within each state’s border–by stumping with the candidates, holding press conferences, arranging rallies, and all the rest. Unlike Senators, Governors inspire fear, and as Machiavelli taught his prince and as Sonny reminded Calogero, it is better to be feared than to be loved.
Unlike in 2004, when Republicans had 28 Governors to the Democrats’ 22, it is the Democrats who will dominate the election landscape in 2008. Currently, the Democrats control 28 of 50 statehouses. This year, Mississippi is certain to stay Republican with Gov. Haley Barbour, Kentucky could easily switch from Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher to Democratic nominee Steve Beshear, and Louisiana could tumble the other way, from retiring Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco to likely GOP nominee Congressman Bobby Jindal. Thus, the ’08 line-up will probably be similar to today’s Democratic statehouse advantage.
How did the current gubernatorial picture come into being? It’s impossible to see how the make up of each state will impact the 2008 picture without understanding the dynamics involved in the results of the 2006 statehouse races. In the recently released volume, The Sixth Year Itch, eleven individual governor’s races are examined by distinguished scholars and prominent journalists “on the ground” in each state. The Sixth Year Itch also examines Senate and House contests, as well as national trends and also looks ahead to the 2008 contests. Below are excerpts from selected governor’s race chapters…