Religion is well beyond the scope of the Crystal Ball (thank goodness), but there is no denying the intersection of religion and politics in America.
In 1928 Democrat Al Smith lost in part because of his Catholicism, and John F. Kennedy nearly lost in 1960 for much the same reason. (At least one study has suggested that a generic Protestant Democrat would have handily dispatched Richard Nixon, in place of JFK’s squeaker win with a fraud-expanded 119,000-vote national plurality.) Jimmy Carter in 1976 brought fundamentalist Christianity out of the political closet, and it may have assisted his victory in many GOP-friendly Southern and Border states. Ironically, Carter felt the lash of many of those same Christians in 1980. They had become disillusioned with him because of his liberal positions on many social issues (including his acceptance of Roe v. Wade), and they defected in droves to Ronald Reagan.
Of course, leading the Reagan charge among conservative Christians was the Rev. Jerry Falwell and his “Moral Majority.” His death this week has reminded us of the extraordinary role he played in American politics. Yes, Reagan would have won in 1980 had Falwell never been born, given Carter’s economic mess and the Iranian hostage crisis. But Falwell should be given at least partial credit for turning millions of politically apathetic Americans into a lasting force. The press has noted all this with sweeping generalizations about Falwell’s towering influence.
That is only part of the story. Falwell’s sway was in GOP nominating battles, not general elections, from the start. Low turnout primaries and caucuses are made to order for well organized, dedicated cadres. The general election is something else again. What has not been stressed enough is what a lightning rod Falwell became, and very quickly–with the preacher’s negatively charged electrons frequently dispersing more November voters (independents, well educated suburbanites who were fiscal conservatives but social libertarians, the young, etc.) than attracting them.