So if you strip away all of the partisan and ideological analysts and their political self-interest they often inject inf their analysis, and look at the cold, hard political facts in political science terms, how likely is it that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney can be taken off his apparent course to the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination — and how long will it take?
The University of Virginia’s top political scientist Larry Sabato and his top political team provide an answer in their must-read Crystal Ball. Here are some highlights from the analysis by Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley:
The moon over Miami was a blue moon for Newt, a bad moon rising for Gingrich. This moon’s shine was all for Mitt Romney, illuminating a moon river that seems set to eventually carry Romney to the Republican presidential nomination.
But how fast is “eventually?” In this roller coaster race, no one should pretend to know the end point of the ride. There are some powerful examples of candidates who started losing with some frequency once their nominations seemed all but assured.
For example, President Gerald Ford looked like he had vanquished the challenge from Ronald Reagan once he had won the Iowa caucuses and primaries in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, Florida and Illinois. Then came March 23 and Reagan’s surprise victory in North Carolina, which started a see-saw battle that led all the way to the floor of the 1976 Kansas City convention.
Four years later, President Jimmy Carter thought he had iced Ted Kennedy after winning the Iowa caucuses and then primaries in New Hampshire, Vermont, Alabama, Florida, Georgia and Illinois. (In that stretch, the only primary Kennedy won was on March 4 in his home state of Massachusetts.) But on March 25, Kennedy shocked Carter by winning New York and Connecticut, and all told, Kennedy won 10 primaries and 37.1% of Democratic primary votes cast.
Can Newt be Romney’s Reagan or Kennedy? What will Ron Paul’s effect be, particularly in upcoming caucuses? And what of Rick Santorum, the forgotten man? He got more votes in Florida than Paul, after all.
They look at history and the Florida returns in detail, then write:
Gingrich’s decisive defeat should quiet rumblings of a late entrant, although as our Rhodes Cook argued in December, there’s still time for a candidate to get on the ballot in several late, important contests, such as primaries in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and California. But the deadline for entry, in some cases, will come and go as early as next week. The Florida result will only hasten the march of top Republicans, officially or unofficially, into the Romney camp. Republicans may not love Romney, but most of them don’t fear him at the top of their ticket. As a result, the existing field looks more set than ever.
Given Romney’s long lead in money and organization, it is somewhere between very difficult and impossible for Gingrich to seize the actual nomination. But can Gingrich cause headaches — maybe even migraines — for Romney by winning more primaries? Definitely.
Whatever Romney’s problems, February is not a good month for Gingrich…
What about former Senator Rick Santorum, and Rep. Ron Paul?
Rick Santorum, who is appealing to some of the same voters as Gingrich, faces some of the same problems as Newt. And Santorum’s moment appears to have come and gone; he has done poorly since Iowa. Were Santorum to leave the race, the battle for the nomination could get somewhat more interesting — although polling suggests that Santorum’s backers are not monolithic and would split between Romney and Gingrich. When the money runs out, candidates usually depart the race, but Gingrich is a good bet to hang in, in no small part because of his rich friends in Nevada, the Adelsons, who have already given $10 million to support his cause. Paul could outlast his non-Romney rivals, but his low ceiling in most non-caucus states prevents his nomination.
And they provide this graphic:
Their bottom line?
When it’s all said and done, we believe that Romney will be giving the acceptance address in Tampa come late August. But it matters enormously whether he wins pretty or limps home ugly. A much tougher opponent remains for Romney when the harvest moon shines.
Go to the link and read it in its entirety.
Graphic via shutterstock.com
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.