Back in 2002 and 2004, the Crystal Ball brought misery to Democrats and joy to Republicans, as we projected the solid GOP victories that occurred in those years. The cycle of politics is not to be denied, and so in 2006 and now in 2008, there is a role reversal. With each passing week, we send Democratic spirits soaring ever higher and depress our Republican readers further.
Yin and yang. The tide goes out, and it comes in. The first shall be last and the last shall be first. And all that stuff.
Just remember, don’t credit or blame the weather forecaster for the weather.
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Larry J. Sabato et al: HOUSE RACE UPDATE –
Democratic Domination Continues
Every week it seems to get worse for House Republicans. As we will demonstrate below, we have expanded the number of possible to likely net gains for Democrats from our previous 15 to 20 to a new and rather astounding 22 to 27 seats.
The past week has been a wild one for congressional races nationwide. Some contests have gotten more competitive, and in some districts one party has even pulled away. And by “one party,” we do in fact mean “one party”–the Democrats. This week the Crystal Ball is making 33 changes to its House ratings, some of them major, and others minor. In all but two of those races the changes benefit Democrats.
The two districts resisting this week’s Blue tide are Florida’s 16th, home to scandal-plagued Democrat Tim Mahoney, and Kansas’s 2nd, where Nancy Boyda is now facing a tight toss-up race.
Let’s look at this week’s changes, with seats currently held by the GOP highlighted in Red and Democrat-held seats in Blue.