Truly important election years for the U.S. House of Representatives come around only every so often-years when party control is at stake and the House actually changes hands or the balance of power is significantly altered one way or the other.
Since 1970 we have had five of those years:
1974 – The year of Watergate, when Democrats added 48 net House seats and elected 75 freshmen who shook up the House and made life miserable both for senior Democratic legislative barons and Republican President Gerald R. Ford.
1980 – Ronald Reagan’s initial election as President with strong coattails, when the GOP added 33 House seats. That was not enough to take over but, when combined with the still-large contingent of Southern Democrats, it gave Reagan strong support for his tax-cut and defense policies.
1982 – In the midst of a serious recession, Democrats won back 26 of the 33 seats they had lost two years earlier. With six years to go as President, Reagan was never able to rule the House roost quite as effectively as in his first two years.
1994 – Forty consecutive years of Democratic control in the House of Representatives came to an end, as Newt Gingrich’s Republicans capitalized on a poor performance by President Bill Clinton. The GOP added a remarkable 52 seats to give it a House majority roughly equal to the one Democrats enjoy today.
2006 – After a dozen years out of power, the Democrats came roaring back on the strength of the unpopularity of President Bush and his Iraq War, plus corruption that directly affected about a dozen GOP congressmen. Democrats gained 29 House seats (later expanded to 30 in a special December election in Texas).
Notice that the natural rhythm of two-party politics produces changes that flow from one party to the other (1974=D, 1980=R, 1982=D, 1994=R, 2006=D). Often, though not always, the tsunami elections are followed by consolidation elections. That is, the newly empowered party is confirmed as the governing House authority, sometimes with a few seats added to its total in the chamber, and other times with a few seats subtracted.
It’s early in the election cycle for Congress, and a lot can change, but every initial indication suggests that 2008 will be a consolidation election for the Democrats. They may add a few seats, or lose a few, but their majority is unlikely to be threatened.
Furthermore, again based on information available a year out from Election Day, it appears more likely that Democrats will gain seats in the House, thus padding their new majority. How many seats are added, or indeed whether this tentative prediction holds up at all, will depend partly on the identity of the presidential candidates and the coattails they generate. The currently unforeseeable conditions and circumstances existing at the time of the election (such as the state of play in Iraq and the shape of the American economy) will also play a major role in marginal, competitive House contests.
Let’s stress that if the eventual Republican presidential nominee manages to win or come close next November, Democratic House gains could be reduced or eliminated entirely. The current, deep unpopularity of Congress also gives GOP House nominees an inviting target. They can run against the Democratic Congress just as the Democratic House nominees will undoubtedly run against President Bush.
Going into the election year, though, House Democrats have the wind at their backs. Consider these facts…