Get ready for each side to proclaim victory and belittle the votes that the other side got. But the bottom line is that at the Iowa caucuses it ended in a dead heat. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s highly-touted ground game didn’t exact;u prove to be quintessential shock and awe — and the outcome didn’t prove the confidence her team expressed to various reporters over the weekend to be well-founded.. And wasn’t any massive repudiation of Clinton, burying her in a massive Sanders surge. The one certainty is that the Democratic party is now sharply divided; the uncertainty is whether they will unite after they get a nominee, or whether (as in the past) some Dems stay home and let a Republican President appoint several Supreme Court justices.
But it was a dead heat — and Hillary Clinton must be feeling a sense of deja vu because just as 8 years ago, “inevitability” has evaporated and she’ll be facing a tough challenge from within her own party. The perception is spreading even more now that a Clinton candidacy is not necessarily a certainty. The Huffington Post notes the shift in perceptions on the GOP side:
The GOP field has rarely acknowledged any Democratic presidential candidate besides Hillary Clinton, expecting that she will be their opponent in November. That started to change Monday night.
“If Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton get elected — if they were to win, we would be a great nation in decline. … We will defeat Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders or whoever they nominate,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) told supporters after his third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses.
“We will go on to easily beat Hillary or Bernie or whoever the hell they throw up there,” Donald Trump, the second-place finisher, added in his speech later in the night.
Sure, both the Republican candidates were bashing Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). But that shows they are now seeing him as a potential competitor in the general election. Both men made their remarks as Sanders and Clinton were locked in a close battle, with the results still too close to call.
Here’s a round up of some media and Twitter reaction to the close vote.
The Huffington Post:
Now, Clinton faces the prospect of an upcoming loss in New Hampshire, where Sanders enjoys a healthy lead, and a drawn-out fight for the nomination. Whoever wins will inevitably be forced to empty his or her copious war chest and resort to more personal attacks in the process. Even before Sanders spoke Monday night, his supporters were booing Clinton and calling her a liar when she appeared on the TV screens. There was a huge cheer when the feed froze.
Iowa, in short, was not so much the first domino of the campaign season as it was a warning shot for each political party. Existential questions and messy disputes lie ahead.
There are silver linings. Democrats faced a prolonged primary fight in 2008 that was supposed to have weakened the eventual nominee. Instead, it helped then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) hone his skills as a candidate and catapulted him to the presidency
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Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont were locked in an intensely tight race in the Iowa caucuses on Monday as Mrs. Clinton’s strong support among women and older voters was matched by the passionate liberal foot soldiers whom Mr. Sanders has been calling to political revolution.
The close results were deeply unnerving to Mrs. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, as well as her advisers, some of whom had expressed growing confidence in recent days that they had recaptured political momentum after weeks when Mr. Sanders was drawing huge crowds and rising in the polls. The Clintons had appeared optimistic at rallies over the weekend, thanking Iowans for their support as much as urging them to turn out to vote.
The close vote means that Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Sanders are likely to split Iowa’s share of delegates to the Democratic convention, and Mr. Sanders will be able to argue that the Iowa result was a virtual tie.
The Clinton team was counting on its huge, well-trained army of volunteers, covering all of Iowa’s 1,681 voting precincts, to counter the enormous enthusiasm of voters who jammed into events to hear Mr. Sanders. But his well-financed Iowa organization was able to convert the energy of his crowds into voters on Monday night, as he drew huge numbers of first-time caucusgoers, young people and liberals who responded to his rallying cry against the nation’s “rigged economy.”
The virtual tie between the two candidates instantly raised the stakes for their next face-off, the primary next Tuesday in New Hampshire. Mr. Sanders holds a solid lead in polls there and has the advantage of being from Vermont; candidates from neighboring states have won the state’s primary in recent decades, and Mr. Sanders is admired in the state.
Clinton advisers said late Monday night that Mr. and Mrs. Clinton were discussing bringing on additional staff members to strengthen her campaign operation now that a pitched battle may lie ahead against Mr. Sanders. The advisers said they did not know if a significant staff shakeup was at hand, but they said that the Clintons were disappointed with Monday night’s result and wanted to ensure that her organization, political messaging and communications strategy were in better shape for the contests to come.
At her caucus night party here, Mrs. Clinton sought to put the best face on a tight result that had nearly half of Democrats voting against her. “As I stand here tonight breathing a big sigh of relief — thank you, Iowa!” she said, joined on stage by Mr. Clinton and their daughter, Chelsea.
Hillary Clinton and her late-surging rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders, remained locked in a dead heat with most precincts reporting in Iowa’s Democratic caucuses late Monday, setting up what is likely to become a prolonged nominating contest.
Clinton and Sanders effectively battled to a draw in the Iowa caucuses, splitting the vote in the first presidential selection contest of 2016. The outcome, stunning after Clinton’s onetime dominance over a challenger who entered the race a virtual unknown, means the two Democrats are likely to claim roughly the same number of delegates so far.
Even if Clinton prevails, the close contest in Iowa confirms that Sanders’s anti-establishment message has real muscle and appeal. While a narrow victory for the former secretary of state would make good on nearly a year of dutiful campaigning and heavy investment in Iowa, it would also leave residual doubts about her weaknesses among Democratic voters.
Hillary Clinton clung to the narrowest of leads as Iowa counted the returns from Monday’s precinct caucuses, seeking to hold off a strong challenge from Sen. Bernie Sanders with the support of older Democrats, self-described moderates and those who put a priority on a nominee with the experience to be president.
The razor-close vote count reflected an intense struggle that had tightened dramatically in recent weeks. But while Clinton’s lead was tiny — and a clear disappointment for her campaign — it was nonetheless critical. With Sanders leading in polls in New Hampshire, whose Feb. 9 primary is the next nominating contest, a clear defeat for Clinton here would have resuscitated all the doubts that Democrats have had about her ability to inspire and motivate the party’s voters.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) took the stage in Iowa late Monday night trailing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by just 0.3 percentage points in the Democratic presidential caucus, so it was fitting that his speech resembled a version he would give for a victory more than one for a loss.
“While the results are not yet known, it looks like we are in a virtual tie,” Sanders said.
Sanders said he just barely trailed Clinton with 94 percent of precincts reporting. Clinton had 49.9 percent to Sanders’ 49.6 percent. (See the latest results here.)
Sanders noted that he entered the race last year with a sparse operation in the state, in order to tout how far he and his supporters had come.
….Clinton, fearing a repeat of 2008 when then-Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois won the Iowa caucus, invested heavily in offices, paid staff and campaign infrastructure. But, as Sanders noted Monday, he was able to catch up, fueled by grassroots enthusiasm and small-dollar donations.
The political arm of MoveOn.org, which has endorsed Sanders, also spun the Iowa result as a tie, if not a win, for the senator.
…“It is incredible that Bernie Sanders came from so far behind in just a few short months, closing a massive gap to end up in a virtual tie in the Iowa Caucus tonight,” said Ilya Sheyman, the progressive group’s executive director. “These results are a huge win for the Sanders campaign as well as the broader progressive movement to which Bernie is giving voice. The Sanders campaign leaves Iowa with the wind at its back and substantial momentum heading into New Hampshire.”
Clinton, in her speech earlier in the night, talked less about how she felt she did in the caucus. She said the close race between her and Sanders provided an opportunity for Democrats “to have a real contest of ideas.”
“I stand here tonight, breathing a big sigh of relief,” she said. “Thank you Iowa!”
Even today, the president gets all sentimental talking about his great victory in Iowa that netted him a one delegate advantage over Clinton and a two delegate advantage over Edwards.
This whole spectacle is a sham. Whether Bernie ekes out a tiny victory or suffers a minute loss, he stands to pick up or lose one or two delegates at the most. Even if the results were less close, this basic math wouldn’t change much.
Iowa barely has any delegates in the first place, but they’re going to be divided nearly equally no matter what happens, and that’s been the case ever since Sanders got over 40% in the polls.
On the Republican side, four years ago was a complete fiasco. The first count said Romney won. The second count that came out after New Hampshire, said that they’d lost some votes and couldn’t say for sure who had won but that their official count was giving it to Santorum. And then Ron Paul wound up getting the delegates to the convention.
Hillary Clinton supporter Peter Daou on Blue Nation Review:
The 2016 race is just beginning. There will be many ups and downs, many surprises, and many heart-stopping moments. Democrats have a daunting task ahead of them, to stop the radical GOP and to prevent a dangerous step backward for America.
As Hillary said, she and Bernie will have a “substantive debate” about the direction of the Democratic Party and the country. Democrats should be thrilled at the prospect of that debate and the important issues that will be raised.
More than anything, we can thank the people of Iowa for having the wisdom to reject the avalanche of rightwing lies and smears directed at Hillary Clinton over the past year.
As we’ve argued at BNR, Hillary is one of the most ethical (and most lied about) political leaders in America. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent by shadowy conservative groups to destroy her public image. Her detractors reel off a laundry list of unsupported accusations with an air of absolute authority. They assail her integrity through innuendo and guilt-by-association.
But they underestimate the wisdom of the people. Hillary is the true populist in this race. Her strength has always been that the elites hate her but the people love her.
Part of a column in Vox (read it in its entirety):
8. If the caucus results ended in a tie between Sanders and Clinton, then the speeches turned the night into a win for Sanders — he made a detailed, thorough case for his candidacy in a way Clinton simply didn’t. His speech felt like Obama’s primary-night speeches in 2008. Clinton’s felt like, well, Clinton’s primary-night speeches in 2008.
9. The consolation for the Clinton campaign is that the underlying math still looks good. Sanders is running behind Obama among white voters. Given that he’s likely to run way behind Obama with non-white voters, Clinton remains a heavy favorite to ultimately win the nomination. But given that Sanders is likely to win New Hampshire next week, that victory won’t come without a long and grinding fight.
10. Still, it’s hard to see this week as anything but a reminder that the Clinton campaign is not the sure thing Democrats once hoped. She is leaving Iowa tied with Sanders, dogged by her emails, and struggling to excite Democrats about her candidacy. This is not the juggernaut of a campaign that led virtually every viable Democratic candidate for president to sit 2016 out.
11. Democratic elites have put themselves in a position where Sanders is their only viable alternative to Clinton — and they don’t see him as all that viable.
12. Which is to say, Democratic elites have gambled the 2016 presidential election on Clinton’s candidacy, and it’s not obvious their hand was as strong as they thought. And if they lose, they really lose. Republicans can fall short of the White House and still hold Congress, the Supreme Court, and most governor’s mansions. If Democrats lose the White House, they’re locked out of government at basically every level.
It was a big night in Iowa Monday for anti-establishment candidates — just not always the one who expected it.
A Republican race that seemed to be heading toward a romp to the nomination by billionaire businessman Donald Trump suddenly has turned into a fierce and more extended battle: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the opening contest of the 2016 campaign, and Trump only narrowly managed to finish ahead of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
In the Democratic race, a hairs-breadth divided former secretary of State Hillary Clinton and challenger Bernie Sanders, a stronger showing by the Vermont senator than seemed possible just a few weeks ago. While Clinton did better than her humiliating third-place showing here in 2008, it means that she once again heads to the New Hampshire primary with something to prove.
Clinton was looking to avoid the spectacle of twin losses to kick off the nomination battle; she’s trailing far behind Sanders in New Hampshire ahead of the Feb. 9 primary. Her crushing third-place Iowa showing in 2008, behind Barack Obama and John Edwards, was the first sign she wasn’t the inevitable Democratic nominee she’d been campaigning as.
This time, Clinton and her allies acknowledge the Democratic primary could drag on for months. Even a narrow victory in Iowa could provide a big morale and media boost, and deprive Sanders of the potent claim that he beat the frontrunner in the two highest-profile early voting states.
Robert Paul Lamb in the liberal blog Daily Kos:
THANK YOU IOWA!!! Tonight I witnessed a miracle. Four months ago, Bernie Sanders was in single digits in Iowa, given no chance, and ignored by the media. As of 1:30 AM EST, he was locked in a virtual dead heat with Hillary–she had 49.8% and he had 49.6%–and whoever eventually wins, they will split the Iowa delegates. Then they move on to New Hampshire, where Bernie enjoys a 24 point lead (and growing) in the polls.
Many people outside of New England don’t realize it because the media keeps referring to New Hampshire as Bernie’s “neighbor state,” but you can’t find two states more different than Vermont and New Hampshire. Vermont is green, liberal, independent, and sort of hippie. New Hampshire is redneck, libertarian, gun toting, and conservative Republican. Since 1980, they’ve elected only two Democrats to the US Senate, both for one term. Its state motto is “Live Free or Die.” And still they love Bernie Sanders!
But that’s not the miracle I witnessed. The miracle is that tonight, finally, CNN discovered that Bernie Sanders is running for president. They quite literally talked about him more tonight than they did in the previous four months. They showed his entire speech after the caucus, a rousing speech that was pure Bernie and pure class. I had honestly believed that if he were elected president, they wouldn’t cover the inaugural. Now, I’m about half convinced that they will. And that, my friends, is a miracle!
A cross section of Tweets:
@Ashley_spry09 @HillaryClinton I just donated too. We will fight for her to win. She will build on Pres. Obama's success. #Hillary2016
— Tracy (@taiping2) February 2, 2016
Opinion: @HillaryClinton and @BernieSanders were both winners in the #IowaCaucus https://t.co/61PtBx6tUK pic.twitter.com/yBTKTaUtsx
— CNN (@CNN) February 2, 2016
.@pennyleedc: "[Sanders] underperformed in his own base. So this was a win for @HillaryClinton by far." #Hannity pic.twitter.com/ejeGBfpaH0
— Fox News (@FoxNews) February 2, 2016
"@HillaryClinton may well win the night, but @BernieSanders will get all the attention" https://t.co/ug6SHkHhgZ #IACaucus #Election
— PJ Media (@PJMedia_com) February 2, 2016
Tonight I officially endorse @BernieSanders for President. Read my endorsement letter here: https://t.co/uFlByfm6al pic.twitter.com/edq0vn4Nnt
— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) February 1, 2016
You can tell @BernieSanders is a true socialist. He even shared his victory with @HillaryClinton.#IowaCaucus
— Albert Ertl (@McLeiwand) February 2, 2016
A born again communist like Bernie Sanders doing so well today is the surest sign of a declining civilisation known as US of A..
— Dr Praveen Patil (@5Forty3) February 2, 2016
At what point do we just all abolish our political beliefs and vote for communist @BernieSanders?
— Luke Mondock (@LukeMondock) February 2, 2016
Whoa DNC chair won't even say Clinton won: "Tonight’s caucus results have set the stage for .. a Democrat who will energize voters" in Nov
— Ed Henry (@edhenry) February 2, 2016
This was one of the worst outcomes for Clinton. Even if she wins she lost big. The DNC has also lost. Protecting Hillary has back fired.
— Gianno Caldwell (@GiannoCaldwell) February 2, 2016
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.