There’s been a lot of hype about the alleged recent return of thousands of Iraqi refugees from neighboring countries like Syria and Jordan. American officials have touted this development as a clear indication that security is improving and that Iraqis feel safe enough to return to their homes. Not surprisingly, though, we’re not being given an accurate picture.
For starters, reports of Iraqis returning appear to be badly distorted. Although an Iraqi official recently announced that over 45,000 refugees returned to Iraq in October, the UNHCR has seriously disputed this claim. According to their figures, only about 4,000 Iraqis returned in October and not all of them are even refugees. In Iraq, according to Damien Cave of The New York Times, the numbers are being fudged because “returnees have essentially become a currency of progress.” Indeed, that 45,000 figure that the Iraqi government came up with is be based on some very fuzzy math.
Officials from the ministry acknowledged that the count covered all Iraqis crossing the border, not just returnees. “We didn’t ask them if they were displaced and neither did the Interior Ministry,” said Sattar Nowruz, a spokesman for the Ministry of Displacement and Migration.
As a result, the tally included Iraqi employees of The New York Times who had visited relatives in Syria but were not among the roughly two million Iraqis who have fled the country.
The figures apparently also included three people suspected of being insurgents arrested Saturday near Baquba in Diyala Province. The police described them as local residents who had fled temporarily to Syria, then returned.
Some Iraqi lawmakers said that overly broad figures were being used intentionally.
“They are using this number because they want to show that Maliki is succeeding,” said Salim Abdullah, a lawmaker and member of the largest Sunni bloc, known as the Accordance Front, referring to Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. “But this does not make the number correct. I think dozens of Iraqis return home daily, but not 1,600.”
Furthermore, most Iraqis who are returning to their country are doing so out of economic concerns, not out of a newfound faith in the security situation. As the UNHCR notes, of those returning Iraqi families they spoke with, the majority are going back to Iraq because the economic situation has gotten so bad in their respective countries that they have no other option. Whether or not the surge is working is up for debate; but whether most Iraqi refugees perceive it to be successful is not.