Centrist author John Avlon, who worked for then-President Bill Clinton and then-New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, writing in The Wall Street Journal, takes a look at what independent voters as a group tend to want.
And once again Avlon, who wrote the best political book ever on American centrist voters, Independent Nation: How Centrists Can Change American Politics, shines a light on trends that explain why the 2008 presidential campaign has gone the way it has — and, by implication, how it could unfold with new events, including former Secretary of State Colin Powell’s dramatic endorsement of Democratic candidate Sen. Barack Obama. Here are a few highlights:
Independent voters, once a political afterthought, are now the largest and fastest-growing segment of the American electorate.
This shift led to the nomination of two candidates who ran against the polarizing establishments of their own parties, while preaching the need to reach across the red-state/blue-state divide. Now independent voters may determine who is elected president.
The question in the end, of course, will be who has convinced independent voters that they are better-equipped and suited to authentically reach across party lines. MORE:
Forty-three percent of undecided swing voters are independents and 47% are centrists, according to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll. Independent voters have been on the rise while the parties have been playing to a shrinking base. This is a generational change. There are now six states where independents outnumber both Republicans and Democrats — the swing states of Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire as well as New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts.
Key battleground states this year such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina each have more than one million independent voters. In California, Florida and Nevada, the number of independent voters has increased more than 300% in the past 20 years, while Democratic and Republican registration has flatlined.
Avlon then traces the growth of the independent voter in American politics and current trends and indications about where the are. Basically, independent voters are fiscally conservative and strong on national security. They would be, theoretically, inclined to support Republican candidate Sen. John McCain if McCain matched other criteria as well. And here is Avlon’s conclusion:
Looking at this profile, it’s easy to see why John McCain is outperforming the Republican brand. Mr. McCain’s credibility with independents comes from his principled independence and record of forging bipartisan coalitions. Barack Obama’s appeal to independents is rooted in his promise to transcend the left/right, black/white debates. He beat Hillary Clinton 2-1 among independents.
Throughout the summer, independents split their support evenly between Messrs. McCain and Obama, with high approval ratings for both candidates. After the Republican convention in September, independents broke for Mr. McCain by a 15-point margin and he surged in swing state polls. But the recent financial crisis increased economic anxiety among moderates and the middle class, making the election a referendum on the Bush administration. Independents swung to Mr. Obama. Colin Powell’s endorsement will validate the decision for many independents.
The next president will inherit the oval office at a time of economic turmoil, with a combustible combination of high expectations and an angry electorate. But the next president can unite the country even in difficult times if he understands this truth: Americans are not deeply divided — our political parties are — and the explosive growth of independent voters is a direct reaction to this disconnect.
Read it in its entirety…
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.