Our political Quote of the Day comes from Time’s Mark Halperin. And perhaps it’s a bit self-serving to offer this quote since it echoes so much of what I have said in previous posts here on TMV about the tea party movement, the role of talk radio in today’s GOP, and the Republican Party’s future:
But the bigger issue is the state of the Republican Party. When it was weak, the GOP was unable to resist the siren song of the Tea Party activists who heeded the dog whistles on Fox News and talk radio, crowded into town hall meetings to attack the Democrats’ health care efforts, and focused the party laserlike on the debt and deficit concerns that have positioned Republicans for huge gains in the midterms.
The activism and patriotism of the Tea Partiers are admirable, but the GOP has put itself at risk long term. Republican leaders in Congress and the party’s potential 2012 presidential candidates didn’t show any public concern when Tea Party-backed candidates like Rand Paul in Kentucky beat establishment choices in primaries. Party strategists have claimed the anti-Obama energy is so strong among the right and center (matched by malaise on the left) that in almost every district and state in the country, the Tea Party label and the sometimes off-beat or extreme views of a Republican nominee won’t stand in the way of victory this year with anti-Obama sentiment running so high. They are likely to be right in most cases this year.
But O’Donnell is different. She is the canary in the coalmine for a level of intraparty bloodletting that will likely cost the party one Senate seat in November. And if the GOP establishment doesn’t figure out how to build a bigger tent and still win elections, the price Republicans will pay will be a whole lot higher starting on November 3, into the new Congress, and when they try to beat Obama in 2012.
Indeed: there are two factors to consider here:
1. The bottom line is that it served the Republican establishment’s interests to let talk radio and Fox News essentially set the agenda on some matters or lead the charge by rallying people inclined to support the GOP and –via cherry picking facts and in some cases repeating mantra-like fact challenged assertions — convince those sour on the Democrats or leaning Republican to support their party. But with the birth of the tea party movement, the lack of a central Republican leader in the wake of Obama’s victory, and the rapidity of Rush Limbaugh and other talkers to step up to the party’s ideological leadership plate, the tail has been wagging the elephant.
Halperin is correct about longterm. In reducing the size of the tent Republicans are taking a calculated risk: this strategy could well deliver big triumphs in November. But that assumes that voters who either voted for the Democrats, are inclined to vote for them, or feel margainized by today’s talk radio political culture GOP (particularly moderates and former GOPers who can’t support present day conservatives) will always stay home or remain sour. The danger: these voters could be persuaded to return to the Democratic fold or hold their noses because they feel the smell of sour tea is less desireable than enduring poor service from a waiter or waitress who has taken an order.
As noted here before: the race is now on for 2010 and 2012 — to see which party will repel America’s shifting-but-still-operative center the most. And, as I’ve noted often, one of the GOP’s biggest assets remains the progressive voter who feels he’ll teach his party a lesson and not vote. And then, after the elections, moan about how GOPers use their power in making laws, impacting the courts, short-circuiting progressive goals and becoming embedded in the beaucracy. (These Democrats who stayed home or voted for third parties sure taught their party and Hubert Humphrey a lesson in 1968…Al Gore a lesson in 2000…and John Kerry a lesson in 2004).
2. A sign that GOPers are now overplaying their tea stained hands? A just-out Gallup Poll shows that Democrats have re-established a narrow-edge in party identification:
Slightly more Americans identify as Democrats or lean Democratic (44%) than identify as or lean Republican (41%) in September to date, re-establishing a Democratic edge that disappeared in August, when the parties were even. The Democrats’ current positioning remains much weaker than it was at the time President Barack Obama took office, when they enjoyed a 17-point edge in party affiliation.
Most of the decline since Obama took office occurred last year, when the Democratic advantage dropped from 17 points in January to 5 points by November, following the same general trajectory as Obama’s job approval rating.Democrats have maintained a slight advantage of three to five points since November, but even that small edge disappeared in August, coinciding with the low point in Obama’s approval rating. September has been a bit kinder to both Obama and the Democrats. Based on more than 13,000 interviews conducted so far this month, the party has re-established an advantage in affiliation, although it is not quite back to the four-point advantage it has averaged since November.
However, the current narrow Democratic lead in party affiliation among national adults hardly makes Democrats’ status as the majority party in Congress safe. According to Gallup’s weekly generic congressional ballot updates, registered voters have generally been more likely to prefer the Republican candidate in their district than the Democratic candidate, even before factoring in turnout, which usually aids Republicans. That is partly the result of independent voters’ consistent preference for the Republicans this year.
Will this trend continue — or will it trend the other way, with more voters turning to the GOP? Tea Party victories and how they are perceived in the end could play a big — and consequential — role.
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Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.