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Posted by on Sep 28, 2011 in Politics | 4 comments

Quote of the Day: It’s Too Late in the Political Game For Chris Christie to Run for President

SECAUCUS, New Jersey — The New York TV market is flowing with early morning show reports about New York Gov. Chris Christie’s comment last night at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in which he said he isn’t running by pointing to previous statements but which left the door open just a bit for him to run if he wanted. The New York Fox station’s anchor is (of course) the strongest in insisting that Christie sounds like he’s really going to run and could enter. The Fox station seems to be almost straining to keep speculation at full boild.

Our political Quote of the Day comes from former Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer who now is an analyst for CNN. He says it’s too late for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to jump into the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination race. And his reasoning makes sense (unless you are hyping a story for ratings, internet hits or selling print publications). Here’s how he starts it:

I’m a Chris Christie fan. He’s refreshing, he’s raw, he takes on the big challenges, especially fiscal ones, and he’s a Republican governor in a blue state, a helpful fact for a presidential candidate. But he’s also late — too late to successfully mount a winning campaign for the Republican nomination.

As the latest, and final, round of speculation about his candidacy peaks — led by powerful contributors who see the New Jersey governor as the Republican party’s best chance of winning the White House — it’s important to keep in mind how hard it is to win the presidency, or even the nomination, and why in the modern — meaning instant everything — Internet era of campaigning, getting in this late can doom even the best candidates.

The reason Mitt Romney is faring well so far in the campaign is that he has run for president before, making him a better candidate with a national structure in place to support him. The reason Rick Perry has hit a speed bump is that he’s new to running nationally, and by getting in at the buzzer, he didn’t leave himself much time or space for error. If Christie were to get in now, he would be swamped by the instant expectations of success, instant demands for access, and instant need to build a campaign apparatus that takes several months to properly create.

The fact his boosters seem to miss is that the difficulties of running nationally are exponentially greater than running in one state. And that’s why it’s too late for him to run — at least to run and win.

Let’s say he declares his candidacy this weekend, on October 1 — a mere four and a half months before the New Hampshire primary, a contest where a northeastern governor like Christie has to win or come in a close second if his candidacy is to have a chance. He and his supporters will immediately be hit by the cold, harsh slap of political reality, and they will realize there aren’t enough hours in the day to accomplish what they need. After the initial burst of excitement behind his announcement fades, here are the six factors which will turn acclaim into complaint:

Go to the link to read his reasoning.

He also ends with this statement, which is spot on:

Barack Obama is vulnerable. Republican candidates have been competing for months and Christie may regret missing this chance. But unless his intention is to run, lose and learn, he likely is better off keeping his word and then working on behalf of the party’s nominee to defeat Obama. The New Jersey governor is 49 years old. He’s young and he has a great future in front of him

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Sometimes you protect a great future by not miscalculating and messing up the present.

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Copyright 2011 The Moderate Voice
  • Allen

    Christy is smart enough to know, with today’s Tea Party wild animal exhibit dominating his party, there will be no real Republican threat to the White house.

  • Angela Merkel 2012.

  • @lb1901
    She’d probably be better than anyone we’ve got in the race right now, but there’s a slight “birth certificate” problem with her.

  • rudi

    can’t run without staff in place. Even in the Internets age, political office requires a big staff starting out early…

    Does Christy have anyone in place for a national run?

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