A new Quinnipiac University national poll has some good news and bad news for Democratic presumptive Presidential nominee Senator Barack Obama: he leads the GOP’s likely candidate Senator John McCain 50 to 41 percent but a breakdown of the poll numbers shows he remains politically vulnerable:
With commanding leads among women and young voters and near unanimous support from black voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 50 – 41 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today.
Independent voters split 44 – 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. Sen. McCain has a slight 47 – 44 percent edge among men voters and a larger 49 – 42 percent lead among white voters.
Look for the battle between Obama and McCain to be over these swing voters. This once again underscores how McCain, who is continually dissed by conservatives for not being lockstep enough, is actually one of the strongest candidates the GOP could field in the current GOP-unfriendly political climate.
The group that’s going to Obama in whoppingly-overwhelming numbers is black voters — providing him with a built-in edge. And he’s proving to be a decided favorite among women and young voters:
But black voters back Sen. Obama 94 – 1 percent, while women support him 55 – 36 percent. Obama leads 63 – 31 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48 – 44 percent among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama.
The Democrat gets 44 percent to the Republican’s 47 percent in red states, which went Republican by more than 5 percent in 2004, and leads 50 – 39 percent in purple or swing states.
However, Quinnipiac warns that there is some notable softness here:
Sen. Barack Obama’s national lead is solid – but it’s not monolithic,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
“His support in the black community is about as close to unanimous as you can get. Politicians say that the only uncertainty will be turnout. Sen. John McCain leads among white voters.
“As is usually the case, the outcome probably will be decided in the middle, among the independent voters, who are evenly split at this point.”< /blockquote>
A key holdout: many supporters of Senator Hillary Clinton continue to show signs that the party agenda matters less than the person who got the nomination:
“About one-fifth of those who voted for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries decline – so far, anyway – to come home to their party.”
The big issue? The economy:
By a 55 – 29 percent margin, likely voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Obama. McCain gets a 50 – 31 percent favorability.
A total of 88 percent of American voters say they are “entirely comfortable” or “somewhat comfortable” having a black President, but 9 percent are “somewhat uncomfortable” or “entirely uncomfortable.” And 86 percent say Obama’s race won’t affect their vote.
…. The economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 53 percent of American voters say, followed by 16 percent who list the war in Iraq and 11 percent who list health care.
Obama leads McCain 53 – 39 percent among those who list the economy, 65 – 27 percent among those who cite the war and 67 – 27 percent among those worried about health care.
Meanwhile, Carroll warns that voters in polls should not be totally trusted:
“We note with a grain of salt that voters tell us they’re not prejudiced against Obama because of race, or that only 20 percent are worried about McCain’s age,” Carroll said.
At the same time, Rassmussen Reports, which had over the weekend released a poll showing the race tied, now shows Obama in the lead in a race that is nail-bitingly close:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 45%.
Over the weekend, when the tracking poll showed the candidates tied, it was unclear whether the tightening of the race shown in the poll was statistical noise or real change. At the moment, it appears to be a little of both. The race seems to be a bit closer than it’s been for most of the past month-and-a-half, but Obama still has a slight lead. It will take a few more days to see if this assessment holds or if Obama can regain his five point lead.
The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll also finds a tight race:
Democrat Barack Obama holds a slight lead nationally over Republican John McCain — 46 percent to 43 percent — among registered voters in the presidential race, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update.
Polls are see-saws but the conclusion you can draw is: Obama is not close to closing the deal. He and McCain are still defining himself for voters. Whose definition will stick? And, in the end, will it be the Clinton supporters staying home who prove to be Obama’s big problem — a problem that could be Clinton’s in 2012 if Obama loses and the loss is attributed to Clinton supporters preferring a Republican (and by logical conclusion a continued move of the Supreme Court to the right) rather than a Democrat whose name isn’t Hillary Clinton in the White House.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.