The frustration of United Nations humanitarian efforts around Aleppo and today’s unprecedented Russian bombing raids into Syria from bases in Iran are history-making signs of how Vladimir Putin continues to outflank President Barack Obama in the region.
The region is slipping out of Obama’s grip despite heavily-armed Arab allies, decades-long US military ties and numerous US military bases.
Obama may have to go down in history as the President who allowed Russia, Iran and a newly assertive Turkey to gain influence in the Middle East at the cost of its chief Arab ally Saudi Arabia.
The entry of Russian military forces in Syria and Iran, and Turkey’s current distrust of Washington, could signal the start of a long term decline of Sunni Arab power in the Middle East.
UN peace envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura no longer hides his helplessness. Tragically, the “battle for Aleppo” — his term — is worsening between Russian-backed government forces and US-backed rebel forces even as over two million people face starvation, water shortages and lack of medical supplies.
This is particularly dreadful since life-saving UN supplies stand ready to flow in from just a short distance away. But their safe delivery requires a pause in fighting of at least 48 hours, compared with the three hour breaks offered by the Bashar al Assad government backed by Russia and Iran.
Mistura, who is helping to mediate the peace talks, does not hold out much hope for resumption planned for later this month in Geneva. But technical meetings are being held almost daily with his help among UN humanitarian teams, Russia, US and some Syrian participants.
Putin scored a real tour de force, again stunning Washington and its allies, when he persuaded Iran’s theocrats to provide military facilities for Russia’s long distance bombers carrying heavy payloads.
This is very significant because Iran steadfastly refused entry to any foreign forces even when the steely Shah, a close friend of Washington, ruled ruthlessly through his feared secret police. Turkey opened its doors to American bases in the 1950s followed by the Gulf Arabs but Iran never did.
Putin’s success with Iran’s doctrinaire theocrats is a strategic and diplomatic coup because Russia has never had a military presence on Iranian soil despite its centuries-old proximity and relationships.
He caused surprise late last year by suddenly stationing Russian forces inside Syria and conducting bombing raids from there against all of Assad’s enemies. That was another first although Russia already had a refueling and rest facility for its navy in Syria.
The expanded Russian presence does not bode well for peace talks or America’s allies in Syria and the region.
Referring to the hoped-for peace talks, Mistura noted, “While that (late August) is a target date, there is and should be no preconditions because if there are preconditions, those who don’t want the talks to take place, could actually use those preconditions as a spoiling element in order to not have the talks take place.
“There are certain aspects that are unavoidably, according to everyone, both the Syrian government frankly and the opposition, important, in order to make sure that those talks, when they take place, will have a chance to be constructive and effective.”
Despite the Obama administration’s best efforts, Secretary of State John Kerry has not been able to persuade Russia and its own chief ally Saudi Arabia to pressure their proxies inside Syria to lay down arms for just 48 hours to allow enough time for humanitarian deliveries.
Such intensity of hostilities on the ground makes resumption of peace talks with sufficient political intent to carry them forward seem unlikely in the near future.
The Syrian war has turned into a proxy war between Russia and the US and neither can afford to let its allied fighters on the ground come to the peace table from a position of weakness.
In any case, Putin does not have enough influence over Syria’s Bashar al Assad to make his allies come to the peace talks with serious intent.
In turn, Obama does not have enough influence over the Saudis, Qatar and other Arab allies to push the moderate rebel forces they support towards peace talks.
The Saudi-backed rebels have become more intractable since the Russian onslaught begun in December 2015 pushed them into a crouch.
The new Russian bombing raids from Iran could tip the balance again in Assad’s favor after the recent small victories scored by rebel forces around Aleppo. That would make peace talks less attractive for Assad’s opponents.
This tug-of-war is muddied further by al Qaeda affiliates in the forefront of the recent rebel victories around Aleppo. Some have altered their names to separate from al Qaeda but their extremist ideology is unchanged and clearly clashes with the moderate rebels supported by Washington.
The Islamic State in Syria could stymie peace altogether. It is far yet from being defeated although US-backed Kurdish fighters have scored some victories against it recently.
Russia says its bases in Iran will be used to attack IS but success is far from certain. Thus far, Russians planes have mostly attacked US-backed rebels in Syria.
Turkey, which has little love for both Iran and Saudi Arabia, has not shown its hand although Staffan de Mistura says its role is vital for peace in Syria.
Ankara’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan is currently at daggers drawn with Obama following the coup against his rule.
He remains a wild card and his recent rapprochement with Putin is likely to further dent Washington’s grip on the situation in Syria and the wider region.
He believes as do many ordinary Turks that Washington was involved in the coup attempt allegedly orchestrated by an influential Turkish cleric sheltered in the US.
Erdogan also thinks that Washington favors Kurdish fighters who want to carve out an independent Kurdish region on Turkish territory.
This erratic behavior has turned Turkey, a long-time NATO ally and host to NATO military bases, into an unpredictable influence in Syria, Iraq and the region. Erdogan is no longer acting like an ally who trusts the US.