So far I’ve posted my views on the races for the House and the Senate in which I predict that things will pretty much stay the same, with single digit shifts in both bodies but no real change in overall control or makeup.
Now we get to the big contest is for the Presidency and I’ve saved it for today in order to give myself the most complete information in making my forecasts. I definitely think that the contest is going to be very close and the outcome may be in doubt until Wednesday.
Of course many states are not in play and the campaign will be decided in a few key swing states.
I start out by giving President Obama 217 Electoral Votes in 17 states plus DC (California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and the District of Columbia)
I give Governor Romney 206 Electoral Votes in 24 states (Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming)
That leaves us with 115 Electoral votes in 9 states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin).
Starting off first with Pennsylvania, I was actually reluctant to include this as a swing state but since even most left leaning sites have it in that category I felt I had to do so. But Pennsylvania is a classic sort of tease state for the Republicans, frequently seeming to look like it is in play but it usually is not.
So I am giving these 20 Electoral votes to President Obama, boosting him to 237 votes while Romney stays at 206.
We next go to Florida, which has been a real target for both parties but most polls over the last several weeks have given the edge to Romney. To be sure there have been one or two polls showing a tie or a slight Obama edge but again even most liberal leaning sites concede a Romney advantage so I tip this state to Romney.
This gives him 29 Electoral votes but Obama continues to lead with 237 votes to 235 for Romney.
Heading up the coast to Virginia we have one of the states that has moved from pretty solidly red to relatively purple in nature. However as with Florida most recent polls have shown Romney ahead and while I would not be surprised if Obama carries the state I am going to call it for Romney.
This gives him another 13 electoral votes and puts him ahead with 248 electoral votes to 237 for President Obama.
This brings us down to the final six swing states (Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin) that I think will end up being the key to the Presidency. As you will see the fact that we already have Romney with 248 electoral votes and Obama with 237 means that a real blowout in the electoral college is unlikely.
Starting in New Hampshire, things are close and could swing either way. The state has gone back and forth over the last few elections (Dem in 2006 and 2008, GOP in 2010) but I think Obama has a regional edge here which gives him 4 electoral votes.
So the count is now 248 for Romney and 241 for Obama
I’m next heading out west to take in Nevada and Colorado.
Both states are quite close and both have swung between the parties. But looking at the polls and in particular at the trends I think Nevada is likely to go with Obama while Colorado is likely to go with Romney.
This gives President Obama an additional 6 votes and Governor Romney an additional 9.
So our tally is now 257 for Romney and 247 for Obama.
I do think the above 3 states (New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada) could flip the other way, so if you think I’m off there I certainly understand.
Moving to the Midwest we come to the final 3 states: Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio.
Looking first at Iowa, the state is close and I had been trending it in Obama’s direction but the recent endorsement of Romney by the Des Moines Register could have a real impact in a state where it is the very dominant newspaper.But given the general Democratic trends in Iowa I tip it to Obama, giving him 253 electoral votes to 257 for Romney.
Next we move to Wisconsin. Romney clearly hoped that Ryan would help him carry the state but I wrote at the time that I felt he’d be smarter to pick Rob Portman to carry Ohio and it does not look like Ryan has delivered the state. Polls have shown the race close but with a slight Obama edge and that should be enough to carry him through for 10 electoral votes.
This would give us a near tie, Obama at 263 votes and Romney at 257.
Which brings us down to Ohio.
As I wrote earlier, the race in Ohio basically comes down to a contest between the Democratic regions in the north part of the state versus the Republican ones in the south part of the state. Hamilton County (aka Cincinnati) is likely to be a real key with the winner there a strong favorite to carry the state.
I really do think either candidate could win and it really will come down to things like turnout (which of course we cannot predict) but I am going to give an edge to Obama because he has had more time to really organize the state.
And with those 18 votes we see a win for Obama with a 281-257 margin.
Of course as I’ve said these 6 swing states could really go either way but the interesting thing is that you are not going to see a very wide margin no matter who wins. Even if you gave all six states to Obama he would only have a 332-206 edge while Romney would end up with a 321-217 margin. Since it is unlikely that one candidate would sweep all six then the odds are the winner will remain under 300 votes.
However the popular vote could be a different matter. The current Real Clear Politics average shows Obama leading Romney by an 0.5% margin. Turnout of course could change this but it is also possible that Sandy could depress turnout in New York and New Jersey. This won’t impact who carries those states but it could keep Obama popular vote down.
However assuming Obama keeps that 0.5% lead and assuming turnout is somewhere between 2004 and 2008 (around 125 million or so) then we would get an Obama victory margin of 600,000 votes or so.
Of course such a close popular vote margin could flip either way but it is going to remain close. Even if you doubled the current Obama margin he would only win by about 1.2 million votes out of 125 million or so cast.
So the odds are whoever wins will have under 3oo Electoral Votes and a popular vote margin of less that 1 million votes.
Now that I’ve managed to upset everyone (Romney supporters mad that I didn’t predict he’d win, Obama supporters mad that I didn’t predict a 2-1 landslide) feel free to chime in with your own views.