Three state polls find Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama increasing his margins in swing states — the important states of Ohio, Colorado and Florida. And the economy and independent voters moving towards Obama have a lot to do with it.
In Colorado, which once seemed as if it would be a big battleground state, if the current poll holds up, Obama will win by a whopping margin:
Sen. Barack Obama has surged to a commanding, double-digit lead in Colorado amid soaring anxiety about the country’s direction and a massive shift of independent voters into the Democratic column, a new poll finds.
After weeks of devastating economic news, Obama now leads by 12 percentage points – 52 percent to 40 percent – in the latest Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 News poll.
“Clearly, the beginning of October is not a happy time in American history, and voters are sort of internalizing the financial crisis,” said pollster Lori Weigel.
Since early August, when Colorado independents were almost evenly split between the two presidential candidates, Obama has opened up a more than 2-to-1 advantage in that pivotal voting group, the poll found.
In Ohio, it remains a statistical dead heat, but Obama is now on the ascent and has pulled three points ahead:
Ohio voters, wrong only twice when picking the president in the last 108 years, remain nearly split over their choice for the White House, according to a new Ohio Newspaper Poll.
But while the race remains a statistical dead heat, more voters are siding with Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, who has erased Republican Sen. John McCain’s previous lead in the Buckeye State and now holds a 3-point advantage, 49 percent to 46 percent.
The poll, when compared with the two previous Ohio Newspaper Polls, suggests the Illinois senator has momentum on his side.
Obama also seems on the rise on the most controversy-sparking state of all — Florida:
Barack Obama has opened up a 49-42 percent lead over John McCain in Florida, according to a new Miami Herald poll showing the Democrat earns high marks on the economy and is drawing significant support from the swing voters who decide elections in the nation’s largest swing state.
Boosting Obama: independent voters, who back him over McCain by a 57-22 percent margin — a 38-point shift toward the Democrat since the last poll in September. Both were conducted for The Miami Herald, St. Petersburg Times and Bay News 9 by SEA Polling and Strategic Design and The Polling Co.
The poll shows that multiple hurdles are in McCain’s way:
• He is losing in Southwest Florida, a once-reliable Republican base. And he’s ahead in only one region: conservative North Florida, by 7 percentage points.
• Obama has tied McCain among voters over 65 years old. They backed McCain by seven more percentage points than Obama in last month’s poll, which was taken just as news of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy precipitated the economic crisis.
• Only 35 percent of Floridians polled say McCain demonstrated more leadership during the crisis and has a better plan to fix it. Compare that to the 45 percent who say Obama demonstrated better leadership and almost half of all voters who say Obama has a better economic plan.
Real Clear Politics’ average of polls how has Obama with a 7.9 percent lead nationally.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.