The last batch of MSNBC/McClatchy polls are in and there’s at least some good news for the GOP: races are tightening and the party will keep the Senate.
The poll shows the Democrats in the lead to take over the House.
And it also shows that the ad that the Republican party ran in Tennessee in the battle against Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. for the Senate seat that was widely condemned as being racist before being pulled (after being on for several days so the message would sink in) worked.
So in future campaigns, Americans could expect it again. The poll:
Just days from the midterm elections, the final round of MSNBC/McClatchy polls shows a tightening race to the finish in the battle for control of the U.S. Senate. Democrats are leading in several races that could result in party pickups, but Republicans have narrowed the gap in other close races, according to Mason-Dixon polls in 12 states.
This NBC report gives specifics then offers this summary:
In all, these key Senate races show the following:
* Two Republican incumbents in serious trouble: Santorum and DeWine. Democrats could gain two seats.
* Four Republican incumbents essentially tied with their challengers: Allen, Burns, Chafee and Talent. Four toss-ups that could turn into Democratic gains.
* Three Democratic incumbents with leads: Cantwell, Menendez, and Stabenow.
* One Republican incumbent ahead of his challenger: Kyl.
* One Republican open seat with the Republican leading, Tennessee.
* One open Democratic seat virtually tied: Maryland.
The results show that the Democrats have a good chance of gaining at least 2 seats in the Senate. As of now, they must win 4 of the toss-up seats, while holding on to Maryland in order to gain control of the Senate.
And ad against Ford? McClatchy offers this:
In Tennessee, Republican Corker had appeared in trouble just weeks ago. But one major trend helped him in the Republican-leaning state: he finally consolidated Republican support in Eastern Tennessee after a bitter primary fight that had left the party base splintered.
Also, a much-discussed Republican ad suggesting that Ford, who is black, dated white women had some impact, the poll showed. Among the third who admitted they were impacted by the ad, they broke for Corker over Ford by a 2-1 margin.
So playing the race card does work in an extremely tight contest — even if its later pulled after an uproar. Dangling it out there is a reminder. And these numbers seemingly ensure it’ll be pulled out of the deck again in future races. Why? Because it’s now documentable that it worked.
ALSO READ: Steven Clemmons makes the case that now back-in-the-running Lincoln Chafee’s political survival as the moderate Republican Senator from Rhode Island would be good news.
UPDATES:
—A political scientist warns that there could be perils ahead for the Democrats:
More gridlock could be the result, especially if Republicans hold onto the Senate, said Susan MacManus, who teaches political science at the University of South Florida. Democrats need to gain six Senate seats, which many analysts consider less likely than the House takeover.
“They have to pass some things,” MacManus said of a Democratic majority in the House, “and they have to be cohesive in their approach to them. And that’s tough if you only take one house. The advantage the Republicans had in ’94 is they took it all.”
On the other hand, there have been some who have argued that if the Democrats take both houses there could be additional political landmines and that they’d be in better shape for 2008 if they just take the house. We’ll hear more of the arguments on both sides on Nov. 8 if this poll proves to be correct.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.