Who would ever have thought that by early 2012 with the economy still reeling and resentment and hatred towards President Barack Obama in the GOP at a fever pitch the Republican Party would be suffering a bigger enthusiasm gap than the Democrats. But a new poll finds just that — and it could be a problem for the GOP:
The paltry turnout in the Republican Presidential contests over the last week reflects what we’ve seen in our recent national polling: Democrats are now more excited about voting this fall than Republicans are, reversing the enthusiasm gap that plagued the party in 2010.
Our last national survey for Daily Kos found that 58% of Democrats were ‘very excited’ about voting this fall, compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months ago the figures were 48% of Democrats ‘very excited’ and Republicans at the same 54%. Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for the GOP.
Going deeper inside the numbers:
-25% of conservatives are not at all excited to vote this fall, compared to only 16% of liberals.
-The percentage of Tea Party voters ‘very excited’ about voting in November has declined from 73% to 62% since late July.
-The single group of voters most enthused about turning this year are African Americans, 72% of whom say they’re ‘very excited’ to cast their ballots.
This could change markedly if Obama and the Dems trigger an issue that unites GOPers. In several past elections legal cases involving gay marriage had surfaced months before an election and helped make that a wedge issue. That could be happening again. But so far disappointment with the GOP field seems to be trump (excuse the expression) the big wedge issues. On the other hand, I continue to predict that once Republicans pick a presidential nominee — brokered convention or not — talk show hosts will quickly fall into line and upset conservatives will as always follow their lead and their rationale to give total support to the party nominee. And then there is the fact that Citizens United can do an awful lot now to help campaigns whip up their base with blanket negative ads.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.