A new poll in Pennsylvania underscores some national polls: Democratic Sen. Barack Obama is ahead of Republican Sen. John McCain by 5 percent but he is far from closing the sale since voters have lingering doubts:
U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) continues to hold a narrow lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in Pennsylvania, edging his Republican rival by 5 points in the race for the state’s 21 electoral votes, according to a new poll.
The Franklin & Marshall College poll, released today, surveyed 641 registered voters from Aug. 4-Aug. 10. While Obama led 44 percent to 36 percent among all survey respondents, he led 46 percent to 41 percent among likely voters. With both candidates securing support from a large majority of their party’s voters, Obama’s lead, significantly, comes from the support of almost twice the number of Independent voters backing McCain.
So once again independent voters are seen as the key to tipping the balance. But the Obama camp shouldn’t be too happy with this poll:
Obama leads big among younger voters, non-whites, college graduates, women and Philadelphia residents. With McCain spending huge amounts of time in the state to play up his economic credentials, 55 percent of respondents said McCain would continue President Bush’s economic policies.
But with half of respondents also expressing some concern about Obama’s relative inexperience, G. Terry Madonna, the Franklin & Marshall pollster, said the survey demonstrates his difficulty in pulling away from a close race.
The Philadelphia Daily News offers this quote from Madonna:
“Obama’s hurdles with voters are questions about his experience, some policy differences and the feeling among some that he may be too liberal,” Madonna said. “The story of this fall campaign will be whether voters can get comfortable enough with him to trust him to lead the nation. It really is about Barack Obama.”
Obama got mixed results among Democratic constituencies that supported Sen. Hillary Clinton and might have resented his comment during the Democratic primary that some rural working-class voters are “bitter.”
Obama ran strongest among young voters and those with college degrees. But he was also a big winner among union households, and seemed to hold his own in central Pennsylvania.
Three messages of this poll are:
1) Obama has a lot of work to do.
2) Independents are highly receptive to him so he and McCain will battle for these voters that will be “swing voters” more than ever in 2008.
3) Angry Hillary Clinton supporters continue to be a problem for Obama since they seem ready to vote less on issues (Obama’s views are closer than McCain’s including on the kind of justice needed for the Supreme Court) than to either sit out the election or vote for McCain due to ire that their candidate isn’t the last Democrat standing.
All of the above can be applied to the general election…
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.