A new Zogby poll contends Democratic Senator Barack Obama has pulled into a 13 point lead over Senator Hillary Clinton in California’s 2008 Democratic Presidential primary — and Republican former Gov. Mitt Romney has taken the lead in the GOP contest.
A cautionary note (again): polls this year have been less-accurate than weather forecasters. But here’s what Zogby has found:
The final day of polling before Super Tuesday was one of hardening positions in key races across the country, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby survey work shows.
Arizona Sen. John McCain continued to dominate among Republicans in the states polled in the surveys, with 50% or more supporting him in New Jersey and New York. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won less than half that in those states.
Romney continued to lead, however, in delegate-rich California, with 40% support in that state, to McCain’s 33%. The Republican race was tighter in Missouri, with McCain ahead with 34% support, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in second with 27% and Romney third with 25% support.
On the Democratic side, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama continued to fight neck and neck for their party’s voters and delegates. Obama solidified his lead in California, but Clinton pulled ahead in New Jersey, where the two had been tied in the previous poll.
This is the third release of figures from rolling telephone tracking polls in New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Missouri and California. In Georgia, only the Democratic race was polled and in New York only the Republican race.
And Zogby writes:
“In California, we have Obama polling into a 13-point lead. Monday was another big single day of polling for him there. What has happened here is that in addition to building leads among almost every part of his base of support, he has dramatically cut into Clinton’s lead among Hispanic voters.
“On the Republican side in California, Romney has solidified his edge over McCain by virtue of a very strong showing in Southern California.
“In New Jersey, Clinton has pulled into a lead. She is ahead among Democrats, women, and Hispanics. Obama is ahead among independent voters.
“In Missouri, Obama leads the Democratic race on the strength of big support in the St. Louis region. Overall in the Democratic race here, it is just too close to call.”
Keep in mind that, in California, Independents can vote in the Democratic primary here and Obama will likely benefit from it in a state governed by a highly-popular Republican but independent Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. But independents can’t vote in the Republican primary. Many California Republicans go along with Schwarzenegger but he is (rightfully) not considered a typical Republican conservative. So McCain cannot benefit from independent voter support in that primary.
If Obama does win California by a huge margin it will be a major UPSET since, up until a few weeks ago, California was considered squarely and comfortably in Clinton’s camp. No matter how the Clinton camp would spin it, it would be a huge defeat — as Clinton ally James Carville noted on Chris Matthews syndicated TV show this Sunday.
On the other hand, news stories such as this raise expectations — so if Obama fizzles here tonight it will be seen as a stinging defeat particularly because Obama had all the political and show biz star power (Teddy Kennedy, Oprah Winfrey, California first lady Maria Shriver) campaigning for him.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.