A new poll contains yet more bad news for President George Bush, the White House, Republicans running for re-election and for Democrats in Congress…but worse for Republicans in Congress:
Most Americans oppose fully funding President Bush’s $190 billion request for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a sizable majority support an expansion of a children’s health insurance bill he has promised to veto, putting Bush and many congressional Republicans on the wrong side of public opinion on upcoming foreign and domestic policy battles.
The new Washington Post-ABC News poll also shows deep dissatisfaction with the president and with Congress. Bush’s approval rating stands at 33 percent, equal to his career low in Post-ABC polls. And just 29 percent approve of the job Congress is doing, its lowest approval rating in this poll since November 1995, when Republicans controlled both the House and Senate. It also represents a 14-point drop since Democrats took control in January.
Despite discontent with Congress this year, the public rates congressional Republicans (29 percent approve) lower than congressional Democrats (38 percent approve). When the parties are pitted directly against each other, the public broadly favors Democrats on Iraq, health care, the federal budget and the economy. Only on the issue of terrorism are Republicans at parity with Democrats.
And when you look at the details, it’s clear that Bush is operating more than ever without popular support and that the GOP — already battered by signs that it in may be worse shape than ever with Hispanic and African-American and facing rumblings from members of the Religious Right that they could launch a third party — could be heading for a political train wreck.
But there isn’t consensus on everything.
Congress is getting low marks for not doing enough, particularly from liberal Democrats. People don’t agree on exactly to get out of Iraq. More people (55 percent) think the Democrats should do more to get out of Iraq than those who think they’ve gone too far (about a third). Independents are almost evenly split about whether the Congress should do more (55 percent want more action). The poll has other data about war-related issues.
However, the most troubling part of the poll should be the portion on public attitudes towards attempts to expand (and reportedly in some states actually maintain existing) children’s health care: it shows a whopping majority of Americans want it — placing most voters squarely against the stance of the White House and some GOPers who are backing Bush’s efforts to sandbag any attempt to override his veto of the measure passed by both houses of Congress:
Bush and the Republicans may also be headed for a political setback from the fight over the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), even if Congress does not override Bush’s threatened veto.
More than seven in 10 in the poll support the planned $35 billion spending increase, and 25 percent are opposed. About half of all Americans “strongly” support the increased spending; 17 percent are firmly against the additional funds. Eighty-one percent of Democrats, 69 percent of independents and 61 percent of Republicans are in favor.
Democrats hold a big edge over Republicans on health-care issues. Overall, 56 percent said they trust Democrats to handle health care, and 26 percent side with the GOP.
Most Americans don’t like Congress, but the poll shows they’d rather have the Democrats there to dislike than the Republicans. Other warning signs for the GOP:
Democrats also have a greater share of the public trust on other key issues, including Iraq (a 15-point advantage), the economy (18 points) and handling the federal budget deficit (23 points). On the campaign against terrorism, 41 percent put more faith in Democrats, 40 percent in Republicans.
This means Republicans will be facing voters far more SKEPTICAL if in 2008 they try to turn it into a referendum on terrorism. They’re not starting out with voters who automatically believe they need Republicans in power to be safe so playing the “T Card” may not work this time.
And then there’s the worst news of all. According to some reports the past few months, Republicans are hoping that they can run against a “do nothing” Democratic Congress. Democrats have charged Republicans with blocking action on key votes to build up this perception.
If that was the intent, the game-plan is flopping:
By a 2 to 1 margin, those who see little accomplishment in Congress’s first nine months blame the inaction on Bush and the GOP more than they do the majority Democrats. Fifty-one percent place primary fault with the president and congressional Republicans, and 25 percent on the Democrats. Among independents, 43 percent blame Republicans, 23 percent Democrats and nearly three in 10 blame both sides equally.
As we’ve said here often: watch the independent voters. Karl Rove wrote them off in the past and in 2006 it is widely acknowledged that the war AND giving the backhand to independent voters and only focusing on the party’s base along with the unpopular Iraq war helped Democrats seize control of Congress.
There are no signs, based on this poll, the Bush or the Republicans are gaining ground with independent voters…who will be there to vote again in 2008…at a time when the Republican Party seems to losing support from other segments of the electorate.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.