As terrorism and foreign policy have taken center stage, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has taken regained her lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by a big margin:
In a Democratic field that has winnowed to just three candidates, Hillary Clinton has regained a dominant lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, topping him by a 28-point margin, her widest in CNN/ORC polling since July.
Clinton leads Sanders 58% to 30%, with former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley registering just 2%, according to a CNN/ORC Poll released Friday.
It all centers on the concern over foreign policy:
The poll finds Clinton widely seen as better able to handle matters of foreign policy than Sanders, an advantage that has likely helped the former secretary of state as global affairs and national security have gained prominence in the presidential campaign. Broad majorities of Democratic voters report that they trust Clinton most on foreign policy (74%) and handling ISIS (59%), and as best able to handle the responsibilities that come with being commander-in-chief (64%).
And this poll was taken before the terrorist attack in San Bernardino:The poll, conducted after the terrorist attack in Paris but before Wednesday’s shooting in San Bernardino, California, finds that nearly three-quarters of Democrats now consider foreign policy extremely or very important to their vote, up from 64% in early September. Terrorism has also gained in importance, from 72% considering it extremely or very important in September to 79% now.
The increased attention to foreign policy has not diminished Democratic voters’ focus on the economy, however, with 85% saying that’s a key issue, about the same as in September.
On economic issues, Clinton has a big lead but is tied with Sanders on her value to the middle class:
While Clinton tops Sanders as better able to handle economic issues (58% to 31%), the two are about even when voters are asked who would do the most to help the middle class (47% say Clinton would, 44% Sanders).
That erosion in Clinton’s wide edge on handling the economy when the question is instead framed about the middle class is centered among a handful of groups: White voters (55% trust Clinton most on the economy, while just 40% think she would do the most to help the middle class), those with college degrees (55% trust Clinton on the economy, just 38% on helping the middle class), and liberals (53% trust Clinton on the economy, 34% on helping the middle class). Among those Democratic voters who call the economy “extremely important” to their vote for president, however, Clinton holds wide leads over Sanders on both questions: 68% to 24% on who would best handle the economy, 53% to 40% on who would best help the middle class.
In the last CNN/ORC Poll, conducted in mid-October just after the first Democratic debate, the field of Democratic candidates was larger and it included the possibility that Vice President Joe Biden would join. Besides Biden, the polling also included former Rhode Island governor Lincoln Chafee, Harvard professor Larry Lessig and former Virginia senator Jim Webb.
As I note in the bulk of posts I do on polls (and have for many years), people who like a poll because it supports their candidate will tout it. Those who don’t will question the methodology but will tout polls from the same pollster if it shows their candidate ahead.
What matters is the trending of polls and issues that are at the forefront due to unforeseen developments. And clearly foreign policy and terrorism are dominant at this particular moment — and could be for some time to come.
The Huffington Post average of polls also shows Clinton’s trending is on the upswing:
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.