A new poll has bad news for President George Bush, bad news for GOPers (particularly those who are steadfastly standing by Bush) and improved news for Democrats:
Americans are paying unusually close attention to the congressional elections in November, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and they are more inclined to deliver big gains to Democrats than in any year since Republicans swept to control of the House and Senate in 1994.
The survey, taken Friday through Sunday, indicates that voters are more concerned about national issues than local ones — a situation that favors Democrats hoping to tap discontent over the Iraq war and gas prices — and prefer Democrats over Republicans on handling every major issue except terrorism.
President Bush looms as a significant drag: 39% of those surveyed say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Bush. Just 21% say they would be more likely.
“At this point, it certainly looks like a significant tilt to the Democrats, but it’s still quite early,” says James Campbell, a political scientist at the University of Buffalo and author of The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections.
Democrats including House leader Nancy Pelosi of California express optimism about winning the 15 seats needed to take control. They are hampered, though, by the limited number of competitive districts across the country.
“Things are difficult, and there’s a reasonable chance we’ll lose some seats in both bodies,” says Republican pollster David Winston, a former adviser to House Republicans. “But at the moment the majorities look reasonably solid because Democrats haven’t put into play the sort of seats they need to.”
The telephone poll of 1,000 adults has an error margin of +/- 3 percentage points.
Click on the link for the details. Basically, the Democrats are faced with a historic political opportunity. But assuming that they will take control of the House isn’t just a shaky asumption due to the limited number of competitive districts.
Democrats are in the position of a salesperson who has a prospect who wants to make a change but needs a bit more evidence and inspiration that it is time to do so. That’s going to require a sharpening and consistency of message, plus a no-room-for-error political operation.
An apple way up on the branch of a tree seems poised to fall. Can the Democrats shake the tree the right way — then catch it?
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.