As Democrats prepare to push a more-likely-than-not doomed vote on the children’s health care issue again, they have received good news and bad news from a new USA Today poll on the issue.
The GOOD NEWS is that Americans trust the Demmies more on the kids health care issue. The BAD NEWS is that President George Bush appears to be winning the larger debate on the issue:
A majority of Americans trust Democrats to handle the issue of children’s health insurance more than President Bush, but they agree with the president that government aid should not go to middle-income families or those with private insurance, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows.
Three days before the Democratic-controlled House attempts to override Bush’s veto of a five-year, $35 billion expansion of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), the poll shows that Americans’ opinions on the issue are mixed.
Of those polled, 52% said they have more confidence in Democrats to deal with the issue, compared with 32% for Bush. But majorities also supported two positions at the core of the president’s opposition:
•A slim majority, 52%, agreed with Bush that most benefits should go to children in families earning less than 200% of the federal poverty level — about $41,000 for a family of four. Only 40% said benefits should go to families earning up to $62,000, as the bill written by Democrats and some Republicans would allow.
•A larger majority, 55%, said they were concerned that the program creates an incentive for families to drop private health coverage for a public program. Bush and Republican opponents have called that a step toward government-run health care. Only 42% said that wasn’t a concern.
Taken together, the results show that while Bush may be losing the political battle with Democrats, he may be winning the policy debate.
There’s a tendency on the part of partisans to accept polls they agree with as wonderful, accurate, and right-on-the-dime — and to suddenly question the methodology of polls that don’t agree with them. A previous poll showed Americans 70 percent in favor of this plan. There could indeed have been a significant shift on the particulars, although more will be known as more polls come out, since in polling the key is to see if there is a trend, by looking at a bunch of polls on a given issue or person.
But, taken together, this cannot be great news for the Democrats who are pressing the plan. It clearly means the issue as of today is not entirely a “slam dunk.” Ed Morrissey writes:
Democrats have gone on a full-court press to get this legislation passed, and then to get the veto overridden. They have used two families as fronts for the expansion, even though the children of both families qualified for S-CHIP prior to their expansion. They are running ads even now, showing toddlers with large, staring eyes, that claim “George Bush vetoed Susie,” and so on.
And they have lost the argument. Despite Bush’s low polling numbers and their political advantage on domestic policy, the Democrats have not convinced Americans to subsidize health insurance for middle-class families. In fact, the USA Today poll used the less-outrageous annual income limit of $62,000 for the description of the expansion (some have it at $83,000), and Democrats still lose, 52%-40%. It isn’t even close.
Still, the debate and outcome is hardly settled.
The next vote will likely fail as well (there has been little likelihood that the Demmies would peel off enough votes to override Bush’s veto).
But this is a debate that will go BEYOND political institutions and politicos, no matter what they do: the children’s health insurance issue could have a significant impact on the 2008 elections not just due to partisan advertising but because follow-up stories will be irresistible to any editor.
As we’ve noted here before, editors LOVE “plight stories.” And when this vote fails, look for newspapers and broadcast outlets to continue to follow this issue with human interest plight stories detailing:
–Kids and youths in states who can’t get medical coverage because the vote cut off monies they receive now. According to news reports, some people in some states will be cut off from existing funding.
–Kids and youths who are seriously ill but can’t get medical coverage when this bill might have covered them.
The Democrats can (and will) then use these news stories in their ads. And each of these people who can’t get medical care because they lost their funding or can’t get what they might have gotten also have friends and relatives.
So the political and intellectual debate over the issue is on one level. The other, perhaps more profound level, will be what appears in the news media — and that can’t be good news for Republicans heading into 2008. Democrats are probably hoping that GOPers will breathe a sigh of relief when the vote is done or in seeing polls such as this one.
The debate won’t be over due to failed votes or sagging polls. It will continue via media coverage and scrutiny of a rare Bush veto’s impact bolstered by enough Republicans to sustain it — and it’s likely to influence public perceptions going into 2008.
OF ADDITIONAL INTEREST:
—SCHIP Scheme: Don’t Use Children As Pawns
—Veto May Harm (North Carolina) Insurance Program
—Christian Science Monitor: The Politics Of Kids’ Health
—More Children to Get Health Coverage? Republicans Say “No Way!”
—Politicians make health care bill very muddy
— For sake of kids’ health, override Bush veto
—No matter what, president gets the final say
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.