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Zogby Poll: Obama Takes 10 Percent Lead Over McCain In Four Candidate Presidential Race

May 21st, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

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A new Zogby poll factoring the likely third party candidacies of Ralph Nader and Bob Barr puts Democratic Presidential nomination front-runner Senator Barack Obama 10 percentage points ahead of presumptive GOP nominee Senator John McCain:

Democrat Barack Obama has sprinted out to a 10-point lead over Republican John McCain in a four-way presidential contest including Libertarian Bob Barr and Liberal Ralph Nader, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone poll of likely voters nationwide shows.

Obama does well among his Democratic base, winning 79% support – an indication that the party faithful may be coming together behind his campaign as a bruising nomination campaign nears the end. He also does well among non-aligned voters, as independents favor him over McCain by a 48% to 32% margin.

The details are intriguing:

Obama leads in the East, the West, and in the South, while the two are essentially tied in the central part of the country, including the Midwest and the Great Lakes region, the poll shows. He leads among all voters under age 65 – including by huge percentages among those voters under age 30 - but trails McCain among those older voters by a 45% to 34% margin. Interestingly, Obama holds a 13-point edge among those voters age 50 to 64.

The survey hints that Libertarian Bob Barr could do some serious damage to McCain by stealing support among the very conservative and libertarian voters. Barr wins 10% support among those self-described “very conservative” voters, and wins 22% among philosophical (not necessarily “capital L”) libertarians. As McCain continues to angle for moderate support on the campaign trail, Barr could create havoc for him among McCain’s political base.

In other words, Nader has run several times now so the novelty of his candidacy has worn off among many dissatisfied Democrats. But Barr does would some unhappy Republicans another option.

If this poll is accurate, McCain’s shaky political tightrope act has just gotten a lot shakier.

FOOTNOTE: This is an interesting poll because rather than just ask about Obama versus McCain Zogby did factor in the two likely major third party candidates.



This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 21st, 2008 at 7:49 am and is filed under Third Parties, Ralph Nader, Approval Ratings, Republican Party, Libertarians, Bob Barr, Newsweek Blogitics, Democratic Party, Elections, Polls, Conservatives, 2008 Elections, Democrats, Republicans, John McCain, Barack Obama, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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    Did you actually read the poll? Nader, whose novelty has worn off, is polling higher than Barr. And Barr will start to shed those hardcore conservatives once they learn about his positions on Iraq and drug legalization.
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    Great article, Joe!

    It's funny. After decades of supporting presidential candidates whose support never even registers in the polls, the Libertarian Party has finally found a presidential candidate who has both widespread name recognition and a shot of winning 5% of the vote in November. Yet despite my tenednecy to support Libertarian candidates in recent years, I find myself unable to support Bob Barr.

    While I admire Bob Barr for speaking out against his former party on a variety of issues (the Iraq War, the Patriot Act, out-of-control-spending during the Bush presidency), I simply feel that he is the wrong guy to lead the Libertarian Party. For one thing, he doesn't have a very libertarian track record on social issues. For another, he's a polarizing figure who has little chance of attracting dissaffected Democrats into the Libertarian Party.

    I continue to believe that it was a huge mistake for Ron Paul to turn down the Libertarian Party nomination for president. Given his firm & consistent opposition to the Iraq War and fundraising prowess, I think his polling numbers would be higher than Barr's.

    Ron Paul may officially belong to the Republican Party while Bob Barr might officially belong to the Libertarian Party, but I offer this: Ron Paul is a conservative-leaning libertarian capable of attracting considerable support from liberal voters during the general election. Bob Barr is a libertarian-leaning conservative who would have little-to-no support from liberal voters during the general election.
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    Interesting point, nic.
 
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