Zogby Poll: Big Obama Lead Over Clinton In North Carolina And Tie In Indiana
May 2nd, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
Yesterday we ran a post about polls out of North Carolina hinting at what could be a possible upset — a win by Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Presidential primary there. But now a new poll by Zogby — a pollster that did well in predicting the Pennsylvania vote — puts Obama way ahead in North Carolina and locked in a tie with Clinton in Indiana:
Five days before the important Democratic presidential primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, Barack Obama of Illinois enjoys a substantial lead in one state and remains tied with Hillary Clinton of New York in the other, a new Zogby daily tracking poll shows.
Obama leads by a 50% to 34% margin over Clinton in North Carolina, while the two are tied at 42% support each in Indiana.
The telephone surveys, conducted over two days, began on April 30 and were completed May 1. They comprise the first of Zogby’s daily tracking surveys that will continue until Tuesday. In North Carolina, 668 likely Democratic primary election voters were polled. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. In Indiana, 680 likely voting Democratic primary voters were surveyed. That poll carries a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
Zogby finds Obama leads in all age groups there except 70 year and older (where it is tied).
And it’s clear that although white voters are split, with a larger number going to Clinton, Clinton has essentially lost the African-American vote:
Clinton leads by 10 points among white voters in North Carolina—47% to 37% - but Obama dominates among African American voters, 73% to 10% for Clinton. Among men, Obama leads, 57% to 30%, and he leads among women voters as well—winning 44% support to Clinton’s 37% backing.
Asked if the statements of controversial Obama pastor Jeremiah Wright made voters more or less likely to support Obama, 15% of North Carolina voters said they were less likely to support him, while 4% said the comments made them more likely to support Obama.
In Indiana, Zogby finds a tie: 42 percent for Clinton and Obama:
The demographic breakdowns in Indiana mirror what we have seen in earlier voting states, with Obama leading among younger voters and Clinton leading among older voters. A key middle-age demographic—those age 35 to 54—now favors Obama by a 48% to 41% margin in Indiana, but this demo turned out to be a key battleground in Pennsylvania, which has a somewhat similar population make-up.
Obama leads in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by Obama’s hometown Chicago media market. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton enjoys a double-digit lead. Obama enjoys an 11-point lead among Indiana men, while Clinton leads by seven points among women.
After getting clobbered among Catholics in Pennsylvania nearly two weeks ago, Obama wins 41% support from Indiana Catholics, compared to 40% who support Clinton. Conversely, Clinton leads among Protestants by six points after having lost among them in Pennsylvania.
It’s ironic, but now the “Big Mo” influencing state could be North Carolina.
Obama has long been favored to win there by a big margin. If he loses or barely wins it would be widely seen as a sign of major erosion in his support and Clinton would seize on it accordingly. If it wouldn’t quite change the numbers in the Presidential race, it would change perceptions — and perception often equals reality in politics.
This entry was posted on Friday, May 2nd, 2008 at 7:58 am and is filed under Republican Party, Approval Ratings, Democratic Party, Newsweek Blogitics, Primaries, Indiana, North Carolina, Elections, John McCain, Polls, 2008 Elections, Democrats, Republicans, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Politics. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
