Quinnipiac Poll: Clinton Has Stopped Obama Momentum In Pennsylvania
April 15th, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
A new Quinnipiac University poll indicates Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton has halted what had seemed to be growing momentum for rival Democratic Senator Barack Obama in the Democratic Presidential primary — and Clinton’s hammering his comments on people in small towns being bitter seems to have a lot to do with it:
The first fresh and reliable look at the mood of Pennsylvania voters since the controversy over Barack Obama’s comments about the bitterness of working-class voters flared up over the weekend has arrived: Hillary Clinton holds a steady 6 percentage-point advantage over Obama in a critical state holding its primary one week from today.
Clinton is the choice of 50 percent of the Pennsylvania Democrats surveyed and Obama 44 percent, according to the results of a new Quinnipiac University Poll. The pollsters, who surveyed Pennsylvanians on Saturday and Sunday, conclude that Clinton has “stalled… Obama’s drive’’ in Pennsylvania – with the two candidates’ standing unchanged from the last Quinnipiac Poll released on April 8 – Obama then had been closing a gap with Clinton in earlier surveys taken there.
“Sen. Hillary Clinton is fighting off Sen. Barack Obama’s drive to make it a close race in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, holding the six-point edge she had a week ago. She seems to have halted the erosion of whites and white women in particular from her campaign,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
And she has made some other inroads as well:
“She even gained back some ground in the Philadelphia suburbs – the area where elections are won and lost in the Keystone State,” Richards said in a release this morning. “She now trails Obama by just two points in this critical area, while she was 11 points behind a week ago.”
So Democrats believe Clinton will likely win the nomination? Wrong:
Yet most of the Democrats surveyed in Pennsylvania tell pollsters they still believe that Obama will win the party’s presidential nomination – including 32 percent of the Clinton supporters surveyed.
And it is clear that if she wins, she still has some problems ahead — as does the Democratic party if she loses:
“Two big questions are whether the Clinton forces can keep from getting discouraged by all the talk she can’t win the nomination even if she wins Pennsylvania and whether enthusiasm for Obama will translate into a record turnout of blacks and young first-time voters that would deny Clinton the victory she needs to stay alive,” Richards added. “A bigger problem for Democrats looms in Pennsylvania. One out of four Clinton voters, including a third of men, say they will vote for Republican Sen. John McCain in November if Obama is the Democratic candidate.’’
But either way, the Democrats are increasingly in a lose-lose situation.
If Clinton does wrest the nomination away from front-runner Obama via Superdelegates using the argument that she is the most electable, it’s highly likely that many Obama supporters won’t vote for her in November — and the resulting outcry won’t help her general election image. A prime reason: her biggest campaign gains have come when her campaign has gone heavily negative and not when her stump speeches and ads that got the most media coverage centered on her policies and what she will do as President.
This poll suggests that more than ever it appears likely that the campaign will go all the way to the convention, because it’s difficult to believe Superdelegates will tilt towards Clinton before then if Clinton wins the primaries in Pennsylvania and Indiana and Obama takes North Carolina.
What’s shaping up: the increasing likelihood that John McCain — still is a strong “brand name” among Democrats and independents for his past history of independence from his party line on many issues — will benefit from a large chunk of Democratic voters or stay-home Democrats as he continues to rally his party’s base.
Some months ago it appeared virtually certain that the Democrats would win the White House. Now it appears increasingly likely that the increasingly-polarized Democrats are in the early process of a drive to grab defeat out of the jaws of victory.
See Pollster.com HERE for a table showing results of various polls of Pennsylvania primary voters. For more weblog reaction go HERE.
FOOTNOTE: The upcoming Clinton-Obama debate now becomes more pivotal than ever. Will one of the candidates deliver a performance that can greatly change the polling numbers — and perhaps the shift the news narrative as well?
This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008 at 6:07 am and is filed under Primaries, Newsweek Blogitics, Republican Party, Independents, Conventions, Brokered Convention, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Superdelegates, Approval Ratings, Democratic Party, Democrats, Independent Voters, Polls, 2008 Elections, Republicans, Hillary Clinton, Elections, John McCain, Barack Obama, Politics. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
