Zogby Daily Poll: Obama Retains North Carolina Lead Over Clinton With Tie In Indiana
May 4th, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
The latest Zogby Daily Tracking poll indicates Democratic Senator Barack Obama retains a 9 point lead over Senator Hillary Clinton days away from the Democratic Presidential primary — and the two are tied in Indiana.
Meanwhile, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Clinton has pulled even with Obama nationally among Democrats, although Rasmussen’s upcoming primary poll numbers — showing Obama leading in North Carolina and trailing in Indiana — have not changed.
Zogby reports:
Democrat Barack Obama of Illinois holds a nine point lead in North Carolina, and has now edged ahead of Hillary Clinton of New York by a statistically insignificant two points in Indiana, a pair of new Zogby daily tracking telephone polls show.
In both states, the candidates are essentially tied among moderate voters, while Obama holds leads among mainline liberals and progressives. Clinton holds substantial advantages among conservative voters likely to cast ballots in the Democratic primary election.
After a good day of polling, Obama retains a lead in North Carolina - 48% to 39%, with 13% either unsure or favoring someone else. In Indiana, Obama won the day by a small margin and now holds 43% support, compared to 41% for Clinton, with the balance either favoring someone else or undecided.
In several key past races undecideds have tended to break for Hillary Clinton. Watch the undecideds in the final batch of polling.
In Indiana, Zogby has Obama ahead of Clinton 43 to 41 percent — a statistical tie given the margin of error:
Clinton holds a sizable edge among Catholics and a small advantage among Protestant voters. She also leads among older voters, while Obama leads among all Democratic primary voters under age 55. In a key age demographic - those voters age 35 to 54 - Obama enjoys a 10-point lead. This was a group that went for Clinton in the recent Pennsylvania primary, after leaning toward Obama in the week before the election.
Clinton leads by 11 points among white voters in Indiana, which make up about 83% of the electorate. Obama leads by an enormous 10-to-1 ratio among African American voters in Indiana. He also continues to lead in northern Indiana, a large section of which is influenced by his hometown Chicago media market, and in Indianapolis. In the southern half of the state, which features a population much like that of Ohio next door, Clinton continues to enjoy a double-digit lead. Obama is holding on to a nine point lead among Indiana men, while closing the gap to five points behind Clinton among women.
Meanwhile, Ramussen shows a gain by Clinton nationally — and signs that the close race is indeed good for the Democratic party:
The race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination is now tied. Clinton and Obama are each supported by 45% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Last Monday, Obama led by eight. The ongoing competition between Obama and Clinton may be causing angst for party leaders, but the competition has been good for the Party label. In fact, the Democrats now have the largest partisan advantage over the Republicans since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis nearly six years ago.
In Tuesday’s Primaries, Clinton has a narrow lead in Indiana while Obama has the lead in North Carolina. Clinton leads Obama by five points. Looking ahead a few weeks, Obama has a twelve-point lead in Oregon. Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama continues to be the favorite for the Democratic nomination, but expectations have slipped significantly in recent days. Currently, the frontrunner is given a 73.7 % chance of winning.
All of this suggests that unless Obama or Clinton wins both primaries on Tuesday, on Wednesday morning the race could be exactly where it is today.
This entry was posted on Sunday, May 4th, 2008 at 7:21 am and is filed under Approval Ratings, Democratic Party, Elections, Barack Obama, Independents, Newsweek Blogitics, Indiana, North Carolina, Primaries, Hillary Clinton, Republicans, Conservatives, Centrists, 2008 Elections, Liberals, Moderates, Democrats, Independent Voters, Polls, Politics. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
