Gallup Daily: Clinton Nearly Ties Battered Obama
April 25th, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
In the latest see or saw of the see-saw Gallup Daily Tracking poll, Senator Hillary Clinton is nearly tied with Senator Barack Obama among Democrats nationally — a concrete sign of how Obama has been battered by his loss in Pennsylvania and several weeks of his campaign being on the defensive.
The question: will it last? Or will he regain the momentum? Does this portend problems for him in North Carolina (where he leads Clinton by a fat margin) and in the perhaps more pivotal Indiana (where polls are contradictory but the latest shows a dead heat)?
Regardless of the answers, these polling results aren’t good news for the Obama camp and must be welcome to presumptive Republican nominee Senator John McCain who can watch the two Democrats batte to raise each others’ negatives:
The Democratic nomination race is now tied, with Barack Obama favored by 48% of national Democratic voters and Hillary Clinton by 47%.
The latest results, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from April 22-24, include two days of interviews conducted entirely after Tuesday’s Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Support for Clinton is significantly higher in these post-primary interviews than it was just prior to her Pennsylvania victory, clearly suggesting that Clinton’s win there is the catalyst for her increased national support.
Obama’s lead dwindled steadily all week, falling from a high of 10 percentage points in interviewing conducted in the three days just prior to the Pennsylvania primary. However, the percentage of Democrats supporting Obama has changed little (declining from 50% in April 19-21 polling to 48% today). Most of Clinton’s increased support (from 40% to 47%) has come from previously undecided voters.
Gallup notes the see-saw nature of these polls so far — and that Clinton now does slightly better in election match-ups with McCain than Obama.
On the other hand, the Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll shows polling results unchanged from a day ago — with Obama leading Clinton 49 percent to 42 percent.
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 49%, Clinton 42% (see recent daily Democratic Nomination results). Those numbers are unchanged from the night before and, so far, there is absolutely no indication that Clinton’s victory in Pennsylvania has changed the overall dynamic of the race. These results are based upon a four-day rolling average and include two full nights of polling following the Pennsylvania Primary.
The fun thing about these polls is that partisans can choose the poll that fits their bias — saying the one that shows their candidate is ahead is solid and reliable and the one that doesn’t is based on faulty methodology.
The bottom line:
–Polls don’t agree.
–It is a volatile race.
–A major stumble by either of them at this point could be politically deadly.
Cartoon by Adam Zyglis, The Buffalo News
For blog reaction to this poll CLICK HERE.
This entry was posted on Friday, April 25th, 2008 at 4:05 pm and is filed under Approval Ratings, Democratic Party, Harry Reid, Newsweek Blogitics, Primaries, Indiana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Elections, John McCain, Polls, Political Cartoons, 2008 Elections, Democrats, Republicans, Barack Obama, Cartoon Commentary, Politics. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
