Final Iowa Polls: Contradictory But Ron Paul Could Hit Double Digits
January 3rd, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
As Iowans vote in the Iowa caucuses today, final polling shows contradictions and something that could generate a lot of media buzz: in one poll Rep. Ron Paul is breaking into the double digits.
Democrat Barack Obama continued his upward momentum through the evening before the Iowa caucuses, capturing the lead ahead of rivals John Edwards and Hillary Clinton.. Meanwhile, Republican Mike Hucakbee widened his lead over Mitt Romney down the stretch, the newest and last Reuters/C–SPAN/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll in Iowa shows.
Obama broke through the 30% barrier for the first time, gaining 31% support after another strong day leading up to the caucuses. But more dramatic was Clinton’s four-point drop in this last day of tracking. Edwards moved into second place by himself after another day where he steadily gained ground. This fifth and final daily tracking poll was conducted using live telephone operators in the Zogby call center in Upstate New York. Edwards finished this Zogby daily tracking in Iowa in the same place as four years ago, when Zogby correctly identified the finishing order of the candidates in that caucus.
Obama continued to perform very well among younger likely Democratic caucus-goers, while Clinton enjoys strong support from older voters. Among men, Obama has sprinted ahead of Edwards, who is now second. Clinton continues to lead among women, but only by a small margin.
This could be a highly symbolic vote since it could show how younger voters are ready to shove aside the Baby Boomer generation which has probably done more to polarize American politics than any generation since the Civil War. Baby Boomer political frictions and hatreds run deep and permeate many areas of America’s national debate and perceptions.
Clinton’s camp has already started putting out the message that if she finishes third it really isn’t that big a deal. But no matter what polls in New Hampshire that show Clinton ahead indicate, a big loss in Iowa will shatter the “inevitability” argument — and will accentuate the Democratic battle until Super Tuesday in February.
And on the GOP side (EDITOR’s NOTE: Wrong passage was here earlier) ?
With a Huckabee surge and a Romney dip, the former Arkansas governor opened up a six-point lead over his nearest rival. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson also lost a point, and Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has been surging in New Hampshire, faded here into a tie for fourth place.
Huckabee’s strength among women was notable – he leads Romney by a 37% to 25% margin, while enjoying a narrow 27% to 25% edge among men. Huckabee also continued to show well among those likely caucus-goers age 25-34 and age 35-54, where he held significant leads over Romney and the rest of the field.
This poll shows Ron Paul now at 10 percent — which would be huge news since he will no longer be able to be dismissed as a merely well-funded single-digit contender with lots of loyal (and noisy) followers.
BUT another poll, Political Wire reports, shows Hillary Clinton has a big lead in Iowa:
The final Iowa poll from the American Research Group shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading with 34%, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 25% and John Edwards at 21%.
As for second choices: Biden supporters - 25% say Edwards, 31% Obama, 12% Clinton. Richardson supporters - 31% say Edwards, 19% Obama.”
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee leads Mitt Romney 29% to 24%, with 13% for Fred Thompson.
Meanwhile, Obama has received another bit of good news.
Gov. Bill Richardson’s campaign is expected to direct their supporters to caucus for Sen. Barack Obama in the second round of voting at Thursday’s caucuses in precincts where he is not viable. Two sources familiar with the plan told Iowa Independent that the New Mexico Governor’s organizers have been instructed to direct supporters to Obama in the places where they fail to reach the 15% threshold for viability.
Richardson, whose poll numbers in Iowa have hovered near 10% since June, may need a solid fourth-place finish in the caucuses to continue his campaign. And he is best served by directing support away from former Sen. John Edwards, who consistently polls between him and the two national front-runners, Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton, in national and early state polls.
But Richardson’s modest gains from diverting second-choice support away from Edwards may be eclipsed by Obama’s potential success on caucus night, should everything go as planned. If Richardson’s field organization manages to direct a significant number of supporters to Obama, it could be enough to win him the Iowa Caucuses.
Reminder: the cliche in politics is true. The only poll that matters is the big one on Election Day. It’s going on now.
The second choice matters in caucuses.
This entry was posted on Thursday, January 3rd, 2008 at 10:35 am and is filed under Mike Huckabee, Bill Richardson, John McCain, Fred Thompson, Ron Paul, Iowa, Primaries, Newsweek Blogitics, Mitt Romney, John Edwards, Polls, 2008 Elections, Politics, Independent Voters, Democrats, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Republicans, As Yet Unassigned. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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