The Law of Unintended Consequences & The Great Huckaboom Freak-Out
December 20th, 2007 by SHAUN MULLEN, TMV Columnist
The Law of Unintended Consequences has been getting a vigorous workout in this campaign season. I’m not talking about Hillary Clinton’s Straight Smear Express, which ends up having to apologize every time it tries to run Barack Obama off the road. Or the fact that Rudy Giuliani’s poll numbers are sinking faster than a mob victim wearing concrete shoes as voters find out what’s behind that snarky smile.
No, the really big story is that after years of determinedly tearing down the GOP Big Tent in an effort to pander to evangelical Christians, Mike Huckabee threatens to break out of the pack with the first primaries and caucuses less than a month away.
The result is widespread panic among the ranks of Republican regulars.
But as Rod Dreher notes at CrunchyCon, this panic is not because Huckabee is an ideal candidate for the folks whom the regulars invited to hijack their party. Of course he is. They’re freaked because he would be the dream candidate for another group with some say about who the next president might be — the Democrats.
Rick Moran, opining at Pajamas Media, believes an upshot of the Huckaboom will be a great conservative crack-up that has been long in the offing because (get this) he is viewed as a George Bush clone in that he would be a big-government conservative.
Huckabee supporters complain that folks like myself are making too big a deal over his Christian bona fides, but the guy certainly isn’t running on his experience as a mediocre governor beholden to special interests who comes off sounding like Barney Fife when he talks about law and order and Billy Graham when the subject is foreign policy.
John Cole shed his conservative Republican hair shirt not long ago because he was scratching himself to death. He writes at Balloon Juice that if party regulars try to derail the Huckaboom and flip the nomination to someone like Giuliani they’ll just end up infuriating those evangelical benefactors.
What makes this application of the Law of Unintended Consequences so delicious is that we’re in the midst of the first wide-open Republican presidential race in forever. The biggest reason for this is that the party is badly splintered. The party is badly splintered because it sold its soul. And the guy who is threatening to turn the field on its collective ear says his early success is because God is on his side.
This entry was posted on Thursday, December 20th, 2007 at 11:05 am and is filed under Mike Huckabee, Evangelicals, Republican Party, Newsweek Blogitics, Primaries, Rudy Giuliani, Barack Obama, Conservatives, Polls, George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton, 2008 Elections. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
As I’ve written frequently over at my place the coalition among the social conservatives, small government conservatives, libertarians, and country club Republicans has never been a comfortable one. Both parties have their dirty laundry.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:39 pm
The reality is that both Giuliani and Romney are RINOs from places with politics and reputations alien to and antithetical to normal non-liberal Americans.
Huckabee is actually appealing. And yes, if he were to continue to rise in popularity after Iowa (the current idiotic hysterical overreaction to his early rise in popularity is unjustified; people should grow up and wait until at least the New Hampshire election is over and better, the elections on February 5), the liberal media will crucify him, pun intended.
December 20th, 2007 at 1:20 pm
Good post Shaun!
“Straight Smear Express” - I love it!
December 20th, 2007 at 2:15 pm
So, if the great conservative crack appears, does that mean the GOP will shift leftward (at least on social issues)?
God, that’d be great. I could pick a candidate I agree with for a change….
December 20th, 2007 at 2:16 pm
Iraq has created unity among the normally back-biting Democrats, for sure, and Huckabee’s Christianity is revolting to the country club Republicans. But I predict that if Hillary becomes the candidate from the left, there will be a great new wave of anti-Democratic unity among Republicans, even if they end up nominating Huckabee’s dog for president.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
Nobody’s going to want Bloomberg (junk gun lawsuits = DQ by Americans) unless Hillary Clinton got extra repellent.
If Huckabee were to be doing well, and the liberal media attacks and Dem attacks (huge overlap) had people worried about Huckabee’s chances against Clinton, do you know what the GOP might do?
It’s Sam’s ultimate nightmare, but predictable.
“draft Jeb Bush”
December 20th, 2007 at 4:20 pm
What the fear of huckabee really is, is the realization of those in the Republican party that they are no longer a national political party and are becoming irrelevant to the political process. There is almost no chance that the Republican nominee will win in 2008 and the Republican are going to lose a large number of seats in both the house and Senate.
Given the demographic changes in the U.S., the Republican Party also is realizing that there will be no coming back from being a minority party.
Just think, the next president of the U.S. will probably be decided by the Middle of February and the U.S. will experience the longest transition period that it will ever experience. The government will go over 18 months with nothing meaningful occurring.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:37 pm
If the republican party (the 21st century incarnation) really is coming apart at the seams, then perhaps I’ll need to re-evaluate my contention that god is uninterested in politics.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:57 pm
t’this may or may not be of any consequence. I read the Washington Post analasis of the strength in women of Mike Huckabee to my wife and asked her thoughts. she said she wasnt surprised because Mike made her feel “safe”. This from the most non political person I know. This might be something for someone to pursue.
December 21st, 2007 at 6:31 am
“And the guy who is threatening to turn the field on its collective ear says his early success is because God is on his side.”
Ah yes, an effective strategy going back thousands of years - and probably all the way to caveman days. What’s the saying? The more things change, the more they stay the same. Sure nuff.
December 21st, 2007 at 8:39 am
The last place on earth one should consult for insight into mainstream American voter minds is a political blog.