Gallup: nearly 3 out of 10 Clinton supporters may vote for McCain over Obama
March 26th, 2008 by JILL MILLER ZIMON
From Gallup, re: Obama v. McCain:
As would be expected, almost all Democratic voters who say they support Obama for their party’s nomination also say they would vote for him in a general election matchup against McCain. But only 59% of Democratic voters who support Clinton say they would vote for Obama against McCain, while 28% say they would vote for the Republican McCain. This suggests that some Clinton supporters are so strongly opposed to Obama (or so loyal to Clinton) that they would go so far as to vote for the “other” party’s candidate next November if Obama is the Democratic nominee.
Re: Clinton v. McCain:
Here again, as expected, almost all of those who support Clinton for the Democratic Party’s nomination say they would vote for her against McCain. Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama for the party’s nomination would vote for Clinton against McCain, while 19% would desert and vote for the Republican.
The implications, according to Gallup:
The data suggest that the continuing and sometimes fractious Democratic nomination fight could have a negative impact for the Democratic Party in next November’s election. A not insignificant percentage of both Obama and Clinton supporters currently say they would vote for McCain if he ends up running against the candidate they do not support.
Clinton supporters appear to be somewhat more reactive than Obama supporters. Twenty-eight percent of the former indicate that if Clinton is not the nominee — and Obama is — they would support McCain. That compares to 19% of Obama supporters who would support McCain if Obama is not the nominee — and Clinton is.
It is unknown how many Democrats would actually carry through and vote for a Republican next fall if their preferred candidate does not become the Democratic nominee. The Democratic campaign is in the heat of battle at the moment, but by November, there will have been several months of attempts to build party unity around the eventual nominee — and a focus on reasons why the Republican nominee needs to be defeated.
Additionally, some threat of deserting the party always takes place as party nomination battles are waged, and this threat can dissipate. For example, in answer to a recent Gallup question, 11% of Republicans said they would vote for the Democratic candidate or a third-party candidate next fall if McCain does not choose a vice president who is considerably more conservative than he is. (And another 9% said they just wouldn’t vote.) These results suggest that it may be normal for some voters to claim early on in the process — perhaps out of frustration — that they will desert their party if certain things do not happen to their liking. And it may be equally likely that they fall back into line by the time of the general election. It is worth noting that in Gallup’s historical final pre-election polls from 1992 to 2004, 10% or less of Republicans and Democrats typically vote for the other party’s presidential candidate.
Still, when almost 3 out of 10 Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain over Obama, it suggests that divisions are running deep within the Democratic Party. If the fight for the party’s nomination were to continue until the Denver convention in late August, the Democratic Party could suffer some damage as it tries to regroup for the November general election.
The only thing that continues to come as a surprise, unless there are activities going on about which we know nothing, is that nothing obvious is being done by people - from all factions and players, not just Clinton, not just Obama or Dean or Mark Penn or David Axelrod - who are in a position to prevent the “suffer some damage” from happening.
Funny how in the attempt to give a voice to voters and citizens who feel that no one listens this scenario with the Democratic nomination process is giving rise to feeling as though no one is listening.
Graphs and more here.
Hattip to Holly in Cincinnati.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 26th, 2008 at 10:25 am and is filed under John McCain, Newsweek Blogitics, Superdelegates, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, 2008 Elections, Polls, Democrats, Politics. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
