January 4th, 2008 by SHAUN MULLEN, TMV Columnist
And so after months of stump speeches, mind-numbing debates and a tsunami of navel-gazing by an omnipotent punditocracy, we now have a small measure of how voters actually feel about the 2008 presidential field.
As in a really small measure.
Some 350,000 or so Democrats and Republicans — a record but still less than 15 percent of the state electorate — showed up at party caucuses in frigid and snow covered Iowa last night.
The caucuses are basically a media-driven event and this statistically insignificant, overwhelmingly white and disproportionately rural bunch of voters wield far too much clout. Note further that exactly one victorious Iowa candidate - George W. Bush in 2000 - has ever gone on to win the presidency in the same year since Jimmy Carter put the caucuses on the national map in 1976. Even then Carter finished second behind that perennial favorite, “Uncommitted.”
None of that particularly matters, however, because the results and orders of finish will resonate loudly in the run-up to the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday:
Democratic Caucuses
(1) Obama: An historic triumph for an African-American whose message resonated with men and women, young and old, rich and middle class — and perhaps most importantly, independents.
(2) Edwards: His populist appeal wasn’t nearly enough despite non-stop campaigning and he actually didn’t do as well as in 2004. Unfortunately, the man with the $400 haircut probably won’t last into the spring.
(3) Clinton: Events are spinning out of control — and may even be out of her control — after a disastrous finish that shattered her aura of inevitability.
(4) Richardson: Barely still in the race — for a vice-presidential nod.
(5) Biden: Over and out. Being an experienced candidate meant squat in the end.
(6) Dodd: Ditto. Being a virtuous candidate meant squat in the end.
Republican Caucuses
(1) Huckabee: A triumph for the Onward Christian Soldiers crowd and a disaster in the making for the GOP because, if the New Man from Hope is the nominee, he almost certainly will be crushed no matter who the Democratic candidate is. That includes Obama.
(2) Romney: A humiliating finish considering that he had to win Iowa and spent more time and more money there than any candidate. Many voters saw Mitt for what he is — a phony.
(3.) Thompson: A not half bad showing if not exactly a momentum builder for a man who is barely in contention and will be out of it sooner than later.
(3) McCain: The un-Romney is still alive but not well after a poor showing.
(5) Paul: A respectable finish, but still very much an also-ran.
(6) Giuliani: So what that America’s Mayor skipped Iowa? Ha, ha, ha, ha.
The Sum-Up
While the numbers are insignificant and Iowa certainly isn’t representative of the U.S. as a whole, the call for change from both Democratic and Republican voters was resounding and the convincing victories for Obama and Huckabee are sure to shake — and in their own ways threaten — the party establishments.
Perhaps even more dramatic is that, while Iowa was a state tailor-made for Huckabee, it was anything but for Obama — which after his victory raises the prospect that if he can prevail in New Hampshire and then South Carolina the nomination may be his to lose if Clinton cannot mount a convincing comeback in the 20-state “Super Duper Tuesday” primaries on February 5.
Can Obama become only the second Iowa winner to take the White House? What seemed improbable is less so today. And while the caucuses are just the first stepping-stone in the nominating process, albeit a process that has become increasingly front-loaded, there is an aura of Democratic inevitability.
This entry was posted on Friday, January 4th, 2008 at 4:04 am
and is filed under Joe Biden, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Bill Richardson, Ron Paul, Chris Dodd, Primaries, Newsweek Blogitics, Young Voters, John McCain, Media, Republicans, Democrats, Independent Voters, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, John Edwards, 2008 Elections.
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January 4th, 2008 at 6:54 am
Shaun - On this mornings “Banjo Boy” Joe Scarborough show someone said that 3 or 4% of Obama’s vote was from REGISTERED Republicans. If this is true, this is a significant call for change.
January 4th, 2008 at 11:15 am
this statistically insignificant, overwhelmingly white and disproportionately rural bunch of voters wield far too much clout
1. Even people here in Iowa are aware there may be serious reforms coming as soon as 2012.
2. What may push things over the edge here in Iowa is that many people were tired of being swamped with too much campaign communications and activities. It may not be worth the Super Bowl-like short-term economic pulse.
January 4th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
I’m not convinced Obama (assuming he gets the nomination) would choose Richardson as VP. Bill is too staid compared to Obama. Though Bill has a lot of valuable experience that could allay voters’ fears of Obama’s lack (or perceived lack) of experience…. So I wouldn’t knock out RIchardson as VP, but I wouldn’t put him at the top of the list.