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Obama Not Closing Sale With Some Key Voters Or Clinton Supporters

July 25th, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

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The emerging pollster conventional wisdom is that Democratic party presumptive nominee Senator Barack Obama is now stuck in a political ditch: he isn’t closing the deal with many voters and some Clinton supporters are still dragging their heels and — an increasing number of news stories suggest — some Clintonistas seem to be looking for reasons to drag their heels.

In other words: in a year when it seemed like the Democrats were almost certain to win the White House the emphasis is increasingly on the “almost.”

The bottom line: Obama might consider slowing down his transition team’s ongoing deliberations for a while and divert some resources to plugging up a leaky boat that could sink and leave the race winnable to the floating boat of his opponent Republican Senator John McCain. McCain’s older boat might be zigging and zagging and seem creaky in the political winds but some polls show it picking up speed in some key, vital states.

The Los Angeles Times brings it all together in this report which reads, in part:

Even as his turn on the global stage hit an emotional peak Thursday with a speech before a cheering crowd of more than 200,000 in Germany, Barack Obama faced new evidence of stubborn election challenges back home.

Fresh polls show that he has been unable to convert weeks of extensive media coverage into a widened lead. And some prominent Democrats whose support could boost his campaign are still not enthusiastic about his candidacy.

Several new surveys show that Obama is in a tight race or even losing ground to Republican John McCain, both nationally and in two important swing states, Colorado and Minnesota. One new poll offered a possible explanation for his troubles: A minority of voters see Obama as a familiar figure with whom they can identify.

It’s an opening — and the Republicans would be guilty of political malpractice if they didn’t try to use it. And they are:

Republicans are moving to exploit this vulnerability, trying to encourage unease among voters by building the impression that Obama’s overseas trip and other actions show he has a sense of entitlement that suggests he believes the White House is already his.

In Ohio on Thursday, McCain hit that theme: “I’d love to give a speech in Germany . . . but I’d much prefer to do it as president of the United States, rather than as a candidate for the office of presidency.”

Obama also faces discontent from some of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s most ardent supporters, who are put off by what they describe as a campaign marked by hubris and a style dedicated to televised extravaganzas.

Susie Tompkins Buell, a major Clinton fundraiser, said: “The Clinton supporters that I know are bothered by these rock-star events. These spectacles are more about the candidate than they are about the party and the issues that we care about.”

But, as previous posts here on other stories have indicated that only tells part of the story with the Clinton backers and is a bit too polite. Several news organizations have noted that the some of the Clinton supporters who are balking (and some of those working actively against Obama) are not doing it based on problems with Obama on specific issues but because Clinton lost to Obama. The dragging of the heels is because Obama was not their candidate or, in some instances, because he defeated their candidate. A lot of it is political payback. Which — you heard this prediction here before — could make it tough for Clinton if she decides to run in 2012 after an Obama defeat. And her aides have already bought a 2012 website.

The implications of Obama being unable to win over voters who might agree with him — and some Democrats who during the primaries gravely warned about what will happen if the Supreme Court gets more Republicans on it but now seem unconcerned with the Court and more concerned with teaching Obama and his supporters a lesson on Election Day — are big. Strictly from a political standpoint, it means Obama is unable to win over voters whose self-interest would be served by voting for him even as McCain’s campaign repeatedly stubs its toe and in several areas moves to the right.

The conventional wisdom in many quarters was that this week was a win for Obama due to all of his mega-media coverage in Presidential-like settings. Fact or fiction? NBC’s First Read takes a look at the political realities.

Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro write:

We know this was a significant week; the question is was it enough to erase the doubts voters have with Obama about his ability to be commander-in-chief?

But just asking: Did this week tell us more about Obama or McCain? Watching McCain chasing the news cycle and his inability to not let Obama get under his skin — and the campaign’s — suggests that they could be reactive from this day forward. Why, for instance, did the campaign insist on the equal treatment (see network interviews) this week and not simply attempt to create its own week of coverage from the nets? They were second fiddle all week, and seemed to almost demand being highlighted in that way.

….Can the McCain camp win by simply hoping for an Obama slip-up or by reacting faster and faster? Yesterday in First Read, we noted that NBC/WSJ pollster Peter Hart said this election was Obama’s to win. But isn’t that also true for McCain? McCain can’t simply hope Obama loses this election or fails to adjust his campaign sail enough to capture the strong Democratic wind. Yesterday, actually, McCain finally seemed comfortable being the broccoli candidate — embracing his role as the serious guy juxtaposed to the rock star opponent. Will the campaign around him have the patience to accept McCain’s “keep on keeping on” promise he made to NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell?

A big story making the rounds now is that McCain may accelerate the announcement of his Vice Presidential pick to gain maximum political momentum.

Presidential candidates use the Veep pick to their advantage but this will be one of the first times in recent memory that the timetable of announcing the pick will have been determined by how it could help the candidate’s immediate campaign momentum needs. Not — as Jerry Seinfeld would say — that there’s anything wrong with that…



This entry was posted on Friday, July 25th, 2008 at 6:54 am and is filed under Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain, Newsweek Blogitics, Republicans, Democrats, 2008 Elections, Polls, Supreme Court, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Viewing 25 Comments

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    I think the big problem is that Obama has not been focusing on the economy and energy the last month. Those are the #1 and #2 issues for voters right now.

    Of course, there is a very good reason for Obama to be doing what he is. The Rasmussen poll question on Obama's foreign trip was an odd one: the question is not whether or not Obama's trip makes him more fit to be commander in chief. It's does the trip make those whose only doubt about him were CinC feel more comfortable.

    I'm a staunch Obama supporter and I would have answered "no" to that question too. But that's because I am already comfortable with him as Commander in Chief.

    Either way, next week Obama will be back to economic issues. That will determine how things are really going.
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    McCain supporters are a lot less vocal in their views. They are Mr. and Mrs. Average Citizen, and they are not comfortable with the chameleon they see in Obama. What are his views? They seem to change daily. They do not trust his experience level and are unsure what his qualifications are. They do not understand the media's obsession and, in turn, do not trust the teeny-bopper adulation. They will determine the next President of the United States, and he will be John McCain.
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    Maybe because the media fauning over Obama is TOO FRIGGIN' MUCH!

    I was travelling on the West Coast this week, and passing by an airport magazine kiosk I saw a wall of Obama Newsweek covers -- "What he believes..." or something -- with Obama in a thoughtful, praying image.

    I stood stunned and gagging for a moment. Then a guy passing by commented to me:
    "I hear he cures the blind..."

    I laughed.

    I know Obamafolks here at TMV will still claim media bias in favor of McCain...but that is impossible to uphold now for anyone remotely sane.

    The Chattering Classes have decreed that Obama will be the new President. Obama, taking his cue, is already planning the transition, for god's sake. Talk about arrogance. I noticed TMV's own Shaun Mullen referring satirically to Obama as the Messiah.

    What should an election matter?

    There has long been a silent majority in American politics...stretching back to the Nixon era and Pauline Kael's insightfully obtuse observation: "Nobody I know voted for him."

    But the election is months off. Can the media maintain its endless "Prince of Peace...Obama in the Highest" refrain without inciting wholesale mockery and revulsion?

    When JLo went media-stratospheric she had to release "I'm still Jenny from the block" to stress that she had not lost touch with her average fan.

    Obama ain't from the block no more. McCain is just folks...Obama is the Messiah.

    How will "Obama in the Highest" play in Peoria?
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    It is insulting to still find people insinuating that Clinton supporters will somehow be wooed or "come to our senses" over time to a candidate we have examined closely and thoughtfully and find lacking in qualification to sit in the Oval Office.

    It is as if we are seen as empty, thoughtless, emotional vessels who are subject to manipulation if you just press the right buttons. Here's an angle to consider that many have not: we have thoughts, important thoughts and the ability to cipher a situation. Moreover we are statistically older, wiser and less prone to whim and whimsy than Obama supporters statistically are. We tend to be grounded in our opinions; opinons come to not on emotions but on logic. It's hard to budge logic with romancing or berating. Logic doesn't budge.

    Obama isn't the person for the job. And the more he seems to gain guru status, the more Clinton supporters are concerned that he is even more wrong for the job. Many of us have lived through smooth-talkers and have seen the damage they can do after they get what they're after. And many of us can see beyond the color of a person's skin to what lies underneath.
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    McCain supporters are a lot less vocal in their views. They are Mr. and Mrs. Average Citizen, and they are not comfortable with the chameleon they see in Obama.

    Quiet Average Citizen = Racist White Folk

    Moreover we are statistically older, wiser and less prone to whim and whimsy than Obama supporters statistically are. We tend to be grounded in our opinions;

    You mean stubborn. Just like your matriarch.

    Obama isn't the person for the job. And the more he seems to gain guru status, the more Clinton supporters are concerned that he is even more wrong for the job.

    So Obama's popularity makes him unqualified? Didn't you just say you were wise?

    Many of us have lived through smooth-talkers and have seen the damage they can do after they get what they're after.

    This is a joke right? I assume you supported BILL FREAKING CLINTON.
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    The Germans and the French don't get to vote for President and meanwhile Barak Obama continues to reject and neglect the most important thing on peoples minds.

    The economy. His Energy policy of walk to work till we can make electric cars affordable is hardly appropriate and neither is his "Punish America campaign" in which once again we see the Liberal far left showing their sad faces with the constant refrain of

    "We aint happy till your miserable" dogma. Even while Barak Obama tries to be hopeful, proud and full of "Oh Yes We Can" His supporters are stuck in the rut of "OH No You Can't" and so we end up with............

    "This tape will self destruct in 10 seconds..............."

    Mission Impossible...........a left liberal to find something good, positive to say about anything.

    Case in point.............
    Quiet Average Citizen = Racist White Folk
    You mean stubborn. Just like your matriarch.
    This is a joke right? I assume you supported BILL FREAKING CLINTON.
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    The economy. His Energy policy of walk to work till we can make electric cars affordable is hardly appropriate and neither is his "Punish America campaign" in which once again we see the Liberal far left showing their sad faces with the constant refrain of

    Are you for real? You should look up the word 'caricature' in the dictionary.

    Mission Impossible...........finding a nugget of truth in Neocon's last post.
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    I do find a lot of logic in Sils analysis of Why some Clinton supporters will not vote for Obama.

    Just like there are many Conservatives who do not like McCain and might not vote for him. The interesting thing is that you do not find those who are avid McCain supporters calling the conservatives "Idiots, morons and traitors" like the left/Obama crowd is doing with their Clinton supporters.

    Nor is there a movement to call those moderate GOP'ers who are indicating they are going to vote for Obama being ostracized by the GOP and the Republican party as pariahs.

    Meanwhile back at the ranch......anyone who does not support Barak Obama are lower then pond scum.

    Great tactic to bring into the fold those who have hesitated in embracing Obama.
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