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Some Thoughts On Democratic Frontrunners and Dark Horses

August 19th, 2008
By PATRICK EDABURN

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Media pundits have been spending today speculating over and analyzing the various VP picks for Senator Obama. A lot of ink has been spilled on people like Biden, Richardson, Sebelius and the like.

While I am far from being an impressive media pundit, I do have time to kill so I thought I’d take a little time to downplay the frontrunners and offer a few thoughts on some of the dark horses.

First-off the frontrunners:

Senator Joe Biden: Biden seems to be the name du jour as far as being the top Obama pick but, as I discussed in my prior post, I think he has several flaws. In addition to having frequent foot-in-mouth disease he is also a bit older (66) than Obama would like and he comes from a safe D state.

Governor Tim Kaine: Kaine could help to swing Virginia but he has very limited experience (he only took office as Governor in 2006) and thus would seem to exacerbate the problem Obama already faces, especially with the recent overseas problems.

Senator Evan Bayh: Of the frontrunners he would seem to be the best pick from a political standpoint. He could swing Indiana and he has lots of experience both as a Governor and a Senator, but the hard-left netroots have pretty much vetoed him.

Governor Kathleen Sebelius: As I see it she presents a couple of major problems. For one thing she is unlikely to swing Kansas and her status as a governor does not help with the national security gap between Obama and McCain. Also, many polls have shown that for him to pick a woman other than Clinton would outrage her supporters.

I haven’t mentioned Hillary Clinton but she does remain the obvious choice even though she seems to have been removed from consideration. This could be the pick for the category of ‘dark horse front runner’. Her benefits and burdens are also pretty clear.

Now that I’ve briefly dismissed some of the frontrunners, I’d like to look at a few dark horses that I think could be a good pick for Obama.

Senator Ken Salazar: Salazar is from Colorado which is a key swing state and, while he has only been in the Senate for 4 years, he also has a background as Colorado’s attorney general and also has experience with the environment. He not only could swing Colorado but could help in New Mexico and Nevada.

One of the often-ignored rivalries in American politics is between Hispanic and African American voters and an Obama/Salazar ticket could resolve this. With two well-spoken moderates on the ticket, one from the East and one from the West the Democrats could do worse.

Senator Chuck Hagel: Although Hagel would be unlikely to swing Nebraska into the Democratic column, he could serve as a symbol for a unity ticket, one Democrat and one Republican working together to unite the country. He is a bit conservative on social issues for the netroots but this could be a bold choice for Obama.

Senator Jack Reed: Although Rhode Island is a secure Democratic state, Obama could win points by picking Reed, a marine veteran and a strong voice on national security issues.

General Anthony Zinni: Zinni could be another good choice for Obama from a national security standpoint and would serve as a rallying point for military figures unhappy with the execution of the Iraq War. His big flaw would probably be his lack of campaign experience.

Governor Ed Rendell:  I think this could be a good fit for the Obama ticket, Rendell would solidify Pennsylvania and help in Ohio. He is a Clinton supporter and solid with blue collar voters, both weaknesses for Obama right now.

Obviously I am no political expert, but if I had to guess I would say that Bayh is probably the most likely pick from the frontrunners but I think Obama will go with a surprise pick and choose either Rendell or Salazar.

Of course, this statement probably dooms all three contenders.



This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 19th, 2008 at 8:29 pm and is filed under Elections, Democratic Party, Barack Obama, Democrats, 2008 Elections, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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