Super Tuesday neglects Pakistan at America’s peril

February 2nd, 2008
By BRIJ KHINDARIA, International Columnist

Heading towards Super Tuesday, Pakistan has dropped off the radar of the primaries although it is the most likely place for the next civil war between Islamic terrorists and civilians. It might even become a cause of war with India and near total loss of American influence in the entire region.

Terrorism by Islamic fundamentalists supported by the Taliban and Al Qaeda has spread almost all across Pakistan. Terrorists killed former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and have attacked Air Force and Army personnel near military bases. Nearly half of Pakistani territory from Baluchistan to the North West Frontier is unstable and extremists seem to fear the army less.

Yet, none of the Presidential candidates seem to be aware of the dangers inherent in this situation for America, which is deeply engaged in the Pakistan and Afghanistan conflicts while trying to win over India as a strategic counterweight to China.

As Pakistan stumbles from horror to horror, Washington watches with the morbid fascination that comes from helplessness combined with incomprehension. Despite its many spies, Washington understands little about the violent tribal feudalism of Pakistan’s warlords.

It is hoping the so-called Pakistani secularists and judicial community that want elections, currently due on February 18, will wave a magic wand to defeat the terrorist. This is not a policy. It is escapist optimism because the powerful army is failing to do so. It also brings the US a step closer to losing substantive influence to China in the region.

Sunni Islamic fundamentalists may never rule in Islamabad but a significant increase in their political influence will certainly affect Afghanistan, Iran and India as well as the Central Asian “Stans”. That is China’s neighborhood.

Beijing will undoubtedly move quickly to profit from American discomfiture in the region. Then Washington’s political establishment and media will cry “Surprise” although all the signposts are there right now. The US is already losing Africa to China; it will then lose Central and South Asia as well.

There is particular menace for India and its strategic partnership with Washington particularly since the growing Pakistani mess comes at a time when the world is sliding into recession.

India’s Mumbai stock market has risen 500% since 2002 mostly because of cash-rich foreign investors. The boom encouraged millions of small savers to buy stocks without understanding the risks.

The foreign investors can withdraw within hours because of advancing recession. If that happens there will be blood on the streets in India as enraged small savers scream for vengeance. No government can emerge safely from such rage.

At such a time, Islamic fundamentalists in Pakistan will surely provoke a war with India by sending terrorists. In 2001, India massed troops on the border for more than a year after terrorists attacked the national parliament in Delhi. The next time it may not be so patient. The Pakistani army weakened by the war could fall to domestic insurgents.

India’s rulers may opt for a limited war as a time honored way of uniting people behind the government, especially if millions have lost their savings. They may also prefer a stable Islamist Pakistan to a chaotic democracy unable to stop more terrorists from entering India.

In turn, the Islamists may prefer to leave India alone while they consolidate power in Islamabad and focus on hurting the people they really hate: NATO in Afghanistan and America in the Middle East.

Teheran will not sit idle if Sunni extremists become the puppeteers behind the Islamabad throne. It will have good reasons for fear because Pakistan is heavily armed with nearly $10 billion in high quality American weapons. Pakistanis are already well known for burning Shiite mosques and killing worshippers.

On its Western borders, Iran is confronted by Washington’s Sunni Arab allies and American military bases. Bush personally visited those allies in January 2008 and sold over $40 billion dollars in new weapons because of their fear of Iran.

Iran may have begun its search for nuclear weapons to destroy Israel but it will certainly want them to deter a Sunni war to eliminate “apostate” Shiites once and for all. That is not an unreasonable fear since the US is arming the Sunni Arabs to the teeth and the Saudis despise Iran because it is Shiite, non-Arab and challenges their self-styled claim to be the guardians of “true” Islam.

India would water down its partnership with America to win a deal with Pakistan’s Islamists not to recruit terrorists among the 150 million peaceful Indian Muslims. Thus, the entire region from Iran to South Asia would be lost to America for a long time. These are reasons enough for the Presidential candidates to pay some attention to Pakistan.

This entry was posted on Saturday, February 2nd, 2008 at 3:04 pm and is filed under Elections, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Pakistan, USA, Newsweek Blogitics, Mideast, India, Asia, China, 2008 Elections, Congress, Economy, Iran, Middle East, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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