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Election 2008: Ohio

August 3rd, 2008
By PATRICK EDABURN

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Ohio was one of the highlights of the 2006 Democratic sweep, seeing a Senate seat, the Governor’s Mansion and a myriad of other offices swinging into the Democratic column after years of GOP control.

Despite this fact, the state will be very, very close this year.

President: No Republican has ever won the White House without winning the state of Ohio. Of course that doesn’t mean that they couldn’t change things this year, but they will still be fighting hard to hold on to the 20 key electoral votes here.

Democrats have the advantage of controlling the Governor’s mansion and also will benefit from general fatigue towards the GOP brand at all levels.

Polls have all remained close, but at this point I have to give the edge to Obama.

Leans Democrat (pickup)

House: Republicans currently control 11 seats to 7 seats for the Democrats. Right now it looks like the both sides can count on holding at least 7 seats, with 4 seats (all Republican) in play.

In the 1st District, incumbent Steve Chabot (R) will face State Representative Steven Driehaus (D) and Independent Rich Stevenson. The district is generally Republican in nature and most recent polls show Chabot with a lead.

Leans Republican

In the 2nd District, we have a rematch between incumbent Jean Schmidt (R) and Dr. Victoria Wulsin (D). Schmidt won narrowly in 2006 but the district is also Republican-leaning.

Most of the polls and pundits are giving Schmidt an edge and this is one area where the Presidential race will boost GOP turnout

Leans Republican

In the 15th District, incumbent Deborah Pryce is retiring after 8 terms. The Democrats are backing 2006 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy while the Republicans chose State Senator Steven Stivers.

Given the closeness of the race in 2006 and the name recognition for Kilroy, I would lean slightly in her favor here but the race will remain tight until the end.

Leans Democrat (pickup)

In the 16th District incumbent Ralph Regula is stepping down after nearly 40 years in office. State Senators John Boccieri (D) and Kirk Schuring (R) will face each other in November.

The district is more Republican than the 15th but it is still going to be very close. Since I leaned slightly to the Democrats in the 15th, I will tip to the GOP here.

Leans Republican



This entry was posted on Sunday, August 3rd, 2008 at 3:00 pm and is filed under Democratic Party, At TMV, House of Representatives, Moderate Republicans, Electoral College, Republican Party, House, Senate, Congress, 2008 Elections, Democrats, Republicans, John McCain, Barack Obama, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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    As a Buckeye and a Democrat living in the City of Cincinnati and Ohio's 1st Congressional District, I predict that Sen. John McCain will beat Sen. Barack Obama here while both the 1st & 2nd Districts will depose the GOP incumbents in favor of their Democratic challengers.
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    Ohio will be tough for Obama. There are a lot of deeply racist Democrats in Ohio; only West Virginia produced more respondents willing to admit to pollsters that race was the reason they supported Clinton over Obama. In fact, Ohio was the first state where that issue came up.

    I think Holly is wrong. The GOP will hold OH-01. And I think Jean Schmidt will hold on against Vic Wulsin again in OH-02, though it will be VERY close again.

    Statewide, if Obama can use Strickland to help work his own OH-06, Obama has a real chance. Democrats win in Ohio by running strong in the Appalachian counties. The good thing for Obama is that Appalachian Democrats don't like John McCain either. Obama runs surprisingly close in KY and WV, despite his terrible performance in the primary.

    Despite what the Orthodox Jewish community in Cincinnati says, Obama is doing far better in SW Ohio than Kerry. And Columbus has become reliably Democratic. If Obama can get down and meet voters in places like Portsmouth, Zanesville, Marietta, New Philadelphia and the rest of the river counties, he has a real chance there.
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    Actually I think that neither Schmidt or Wulsin will win personally, but if anything Jean Schmidt will not be serving again. If you're not aware there is an Independent in the 2nd congressional race and I think he'll draw more votes away from Jean than anything else. See his website for example. http://krikorianforcongress.com
 
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