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Poll: Independent Voters Split Between Obama And McCain

June 17th, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

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A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows independent voters are now split with Democratic Senator Barack Obama narrowly leading Republican Senator John McCain among that pivotal group in the Presidential race — a sign that more than ever independent or “swing” voters are up for grabs.

The poll reconfirms what we’ve noted many times in posts on this site: independent voters (and moderates) are not a monolithic blockm but they are vital since they can be the key to a close election. The Post reports:

Buoyed by a public mood favoring Democrats, Sen. Barack Obama begins the general-election campaign holding a narrow advantage over Sen. John McCain, with independent voters emerging as a constituency critical to the Republican’s hopes of winning the presidency in November.

In the first Washington Post-ABC News poll since the Democratic nomination contest ended, Obama and McCain are even among political independents, a shift toward the presumptive Republican nominee over the past month. On the issues, independents see McCain as more credible on fighting terrorism and are split evenly on who is the stronger leader and better on the Iraq war. But on other key attributes and issues — including the economy — Obama has advantages among independents.

The presumptive Democratic nominee emerged from his primary-season battle against Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton with improved personal ratings overall, but with no appreciable gain in the head-to-head competition with McCain. Majorities view both men favorably, but about twice as many said they have a “strongly favorable” impression of Obama as said so of McCain.

But Obama had better get busy, the Post reports. While 9 in 10 Republicans support McCain, a little less than 8 in 10 Democrats suppport Obama — the residue of a heated primary campaign which left some supporters of Hillary Clinton vowing to work for McCain to defeat Obama.

Obama’s problem remains the former Clinton supporters:

Nearly a quarter of those who said they favored Clinton over Obama for the nomination currently prefer McCain for the general election, virtually unchanged from polls taken before Clinton suspended her campaign.

The poll also underscores how tricky an calculations would be to put Clinton on the ticket as Obama’s Veep:

As Obama considers possible vice presidential running mates, Clinton remains atop the list: Unprompted, 46 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents pick her as their top choice, and no other Democrat breaks out of single digits. But it is unclear from the poll whether Clinton would help or hurt Obama’s chances. About two in 10 said her placement on the ticket would make them more apt to support the Democrats, but about the same proportion said it would push them toward the GOP. Most said it would not make much of a difference either way.

The new survey shows Obama running ahead of McCain by 48 percent to 42 percent among all adults. Among registered voters, the margin is essentially the same — 49 percent to 45 percent. At this point four years ago, Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry held identical leads over President Bush among all adults and among registered voters.

The poll also echoes other polls in suggesting that McCain’s biggest problem is someone named B-u-s-h.

The poll reconfirms a key factor about McCain. For all of the denunciations he received from Bush loyalists and conservative Republicans during the primary campaign, McCain has emerged as perhaps the GOP’s strongest Presidential campaign for 2008 because he appeals to many independent voters. Add the independent voters and former Clinton supporters and McCain can conceivably piece together a winning coalition — except that events and economic trends do not play in his favor. And, especially, neither does the continued reminder of the impact of Republican administration under B-u-s-h.



This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 17th, 2008 at 5:56 am and is filed under Democratic Party, John McCain, Approval Ratings, Independents, Newsweek Blogitics, Republican Party, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Polls, 2008 Elections, Independent Voters, Democrats, Republicans, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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    I guess that the media needs to keep pretending that the election is going to be close so that the casual news followers will feel the need to follow the election.

    Considering that McCain has almost no chance of winning in any state that Kerry won in 2004 except maybe New Hampshire but that Obama will win Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and will force the Republicans to expend resource s in Virginia and North Carolina, it is hard to really believe that this will be a competitive race.

    I guess that the media will keep performing biased polls and finding things to talk about to keep people interested.

    If you really want to see the future of politics, look at the special election in the 4th Maryland Congressional District. The incumbent Democrat, Albert Wynn, lost in the primary in February to Democrat Donna Edwards. Since the Republican candidate has zero chance of winning, Donna Edwards will be the next Congressional representative from the 4th District. Rep. Wynn decided he did not want to be a lame duck for 11 months and thus, resigned. The idiot Democrats in Maryland decided to have a special election to fill the unfilled seat for six months. The special election is a total waste of time and the general election result is a foregone conclusion. Yet, the election apparatus operating on inertia keeps having to act like Maryland is not a one party state.
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    I'm tired of people trying to push the "Clinton Supporter" meme. In 2 of the most recent national polls, Obama was handily beating McCain by 15 points or more in the female demographic. The facts just don't support the narrative. Yes, there are Clinton "bitter enders" that will never vote for Obama, but the female Obama supporters far outnumber the "bitter enders".
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    >>I'm tired of people trying to push the "Clinton Supporter" meme. In 2 of the most recent national polls, Obama was handily beating McCain by 15 points or more in the female demographic. The facts just don't support the narrative.<<

    Yeah - I thought that the MSNBC poll last Friday went a long way to display the myth that Obama was "in trouble" with women voters. If memory serves me correctly, it showed female voters preferred Obama by 52% to 33% for McCain, and Clinton-primary-voters preferred Obama by 60% to 19%. (It also showed Obama winning over other oft-claimed "trouble" groups like Hispanics by 62%-28%, Catholics, blue-collar workers, and even the subgroup white-women).

    I am also quite tired of the media playing up the "bitter Clinton supporters" causing trouble. In reality it is a very tiny group that is just very vocal, and since the media likes controversy they play it up as much as possible. I expect as the general election season progresses we will hear less and less about Clinton as she fades away into history. I'm just annoyed at how *long* it is taking for her to fade away.

    >>But Obama had better get busy, the Post reports. While 9 in 10 Republicans support McCain, a little less than 8 in 10 Democrats suppport Obama <<

    Yes -- but since the number of voters who self-identify as Democrats is greater than the number of self-identified Republicans (a trend that has only increased over the past several years), Obama doesn't *need* as large a majority of Democrats as McCain needs from the Republicans. A smaller slice of the pie suffices if the pie itself is larger.

    Furthermore, I wonder just how much cross-party support there is among the candidates. i.e. -- how many Republicans support Obama vs how many Democrats support McCain. I know those numbers are pretty small, but I am willing to bet that there are more Republicans willing to vote for Obama than the other way around.
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    Solution number 3: Write-In Hillary. Don't be bitter. Stand up for the most qualified candidate no matter what media hype is shoved down your throat or what preponderance of media coverage is/was alloted to Obama/McCain over Clinton.

    Obama Expatriates: silhouette@suddenlink.net

    Write-In Hillary Clinton.
 
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