« The Can-Do Kennedy
Ellen Bravo: Ten Compelling Reasons for Women to Vote for Obama if he’s the Candidate »



Gallup Daily: Obama Leads Clinton 11 Percent And Both Beat McCain

May 22nd, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

Print Print

The latest Gallup Daily tracking poll shows Democratic Senator Barack Obama 11 percentage points ahead of his Presidential nomination rival Senator Hillary Clinton — and both at this point could narrowly beat Republican presumptive nominee Senator John McCain:

Barack Obama continues to hold a solid lead over Hillary Clinton in national Democratic voters’ nomination preferences, 53% to 42%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

The result, based on May 19-21 polling, is the first to include interviewing following Tuesday’s Kentucky and Oregon primaries. The early indication is that the split of those contests (Obama winning Oregon, Clinton Kentucky) is not changing the dynamics of the race.

So Tuesday votes changed little minds, which means Obama retains the lead, Gallup notes:
Obama is establishing himself as the clear leader — he opened up a double-digit lead five days ago, and has led by at least 11 percentage points each day since then. While he has generally been ahead of Clinton in Gallup Poll Daily tracking since the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday primaries, he never established a consistent, significant lead until the past few days.

Gallup notes that only three more contests remain. But, more importantly:

Perhaps more consequential than those primaries is the May 31 Democratic Party meeting to decide the fate of the disputed Michigan and Florida convention delegations.

This is the issue Clinton has said is similar in some ways to the issue of slavery, voter suppression and the controversial 2000 Supreme Court election that decided the election in favor of Republican George Bush.

As far as electability, Gallup finds little difference between how Obama or McCain would fare against McCain:

In the latest update, based on May 17-21 polling, 47% of registered voters say they would vote for Obama if the election were held today, and 44% for McCain…Clinton has a slightly larger lead over McCain, 49% to 44%. That matches her best showing versus McCain since Gallup began tracking the general election in mid-March.

That isn’t stunning proof that one of the Democrats is more electable than the other. Which is perhaps why the Florida and Michigan showdown is more important than ever and Clinton is pulling out all rhetorical stops including suggesting that if her arguments aren’t accepted Obama would get a nomination that was not legitimate.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen reports has different numbers.

It finds McCain would beat obama 46 percent to 42 percent — the first time either candidate has been ahead by four points.

And Rasmussen finds Obama ahead of Clinton by a smaller margin — andhas declared the Democratic race “over.”

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama holds a 50% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally. As noted over a week ago, Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. Data from Rasmussen Markets give Obama a 92.9 % chance of winning the nomination. Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 45%.



This entry was posted on Thursday, May 22nd, 2008 at 10:55 am and is filed under Democratic Party, Elections, Approval Ratings, Republican Party, Newsweek Blogitics, John McCain, Barack Obama, Polls, 2008 Elections, Democrats, Republicans, Hillary Clinton, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Viewing 1 Comment

 
close Reblog this comment
Powered by Disqus · Learn more
blog comments powered by Disqus

« The Can-Do Kennedy
Ellen Bravo: Ten Compelling Reasons for Women to Vote for Obama if he’s the Candidate »


By posting comments on The Moderate Voice you are acknowledging and agreeing to the following general comments policy:

(1) The Moderate Voice's comments are hosted by Disqus (http://disqus.com). If your comment doesn't appear immediately, please be patient since it is an off-site system.

(2) All e-mail received from readers by The Moderate Voice is considered intended for publication unless otherwise indicated in the initial message from the writer. Please do not send us attachments unless you contact us and we agree to it.

(3)The Moderate Voice reserves the right to edit all e-mail and posted comments for content, clarity, and length.

(4) Our comment space is reserved for comments that relate to a post's topic. You should not reprint lengthy text from your own works or those of others, including news articles. You MAY link to them.

(5) Comments that are abusive, offensive, contain profane or racist material or violate the terms of service for this blog's host provider will be removed and the author(s) banned from future comments. Such comments also violate the very SPIRIT of this site -- which was created to encourage thoughtful and vigorous discussion among readers who may share differing viewpoints.

(6) All points of view are welcome on The Moderate Voice, with the following exceptions:

(a) Comments posted several times a day with the intent of dominating, re-directing or hijacking the thread by turning a discussion into the equivalent of a bitter shouting match.

(b) Comments posted several times a day that insult or call other commenters or blog writers names or repeatedly make the same point with the effect of or clear intent to annoy other commenters or blog writers.

(7) Name-calling, personal attacks, racist comments or use of profanity by any commenter, whether they are by persons who agree or disagree with the views expressed by The Moderate Voice will NOT be tolerated and will result in the deletion of the comment and the banning of the commenter's ISP address, without notice. In some cases a comment may be deleted and the writer will be given another chance. Commenters who virtually ASK The Moderate Voice to ban them by ignoring any warnings or daring TMV to ban them will quickly get their wish.

(8) Anonymous commenters should identify themselves with the same moniker, so readers know their comments are coming from a single individual. If they don't, they are subject to a banning.

(9)If we have problems with inappropriate or inflammatory comments from a commenter who it turns out gave a fake email address that person is subject to immediate banning.

(10) Quotes from material appearing on The Moderate Voice with attribution are allowed. Reprints are allowed only by permission from The Moderate Voice. You may request permission by e-mail.

(11) The Moderate Voice is a personal site. It is not the Government. It is NOT aligned with any political party. It is NOT promoting any specific candidate for office. It is not a public institution or a media organization. It is not a neutral site. It is intended to express and disseminate the authors' varying points of views. Writers on this weblog WILL take positions. It reserves the right to limit comments to those that, in its view, comport with its stated comment policy. Comments that do not comply are subject to deletion and banning of the author's ISP.

Disclaimer:

--Reading and posting comments at The Moderate Voice constitutes acknowledgment of and agreement to the terms outlined in this comment policy. This comment policy may be revised in part or in full at any time.

--All comments must comport with applicable state and federal laws. The Moderate Voice has no obigation to monitor, edit, censor, or take responsibility for comments. It may or may not act upon a violation of its comment policy once a suspected violation has been brought to its attention. Therefore, commenters are solely responsible for the content of their comments and should ensure that that their comments are lawful and fall within the stated guidelines of both The Moderate Voice and its hosting company.

--The Moderate Voice is not be responsible for injury or liability to any reader or commenter resulting from its own communications or those of commenters, that may be offensive, misleading, inaccurate, illegal, or otherwise unsuitable in the view of the reader. Readers and commenters further agree to indemnify and hold harmless The Moderate Voice from claims resulting from the use of any material appearing on The Moderate Voice which damages the reader, commenter or any other party.

--The Moderate Voice is not responsible for and might disagree with material posted in the comments section. While we strive for accuracy in our posts and DO correct errors, material posted by The Moderate Voice in its posts -- or those left by others in the comments section -- may or may not be accurate.

Read and Post at your own risk.