Despite Democratic Primary Divisions Democrats Have Good Long Term Prospects
March 27th, 2008 by JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief
Right now the conventional wisdom is that growing party divisions due to the bitter battle between Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama seem to suggest the Democratic party’s outlook for regaining the White House is increasingly iffy. But is that accurate?
The Christian Science Monitor says no. In an article, the Boston-based newspaper suggests that although the Democrats are getting battered beating each other up, the party’s long-range prospects are not bleak at all. It first provides the political context, which includes this:
Both Clinton and Obama are taking a hit in their poll numbers. Clinton, fresh from the embarrassing revelation that she had misremembered landing under sniper fire on a trip to Bosnia in 1996, is now viewed positively by only 37 percent of voters, according to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. Obama’s positive rating has held mostly steady – now 49 percent in the same poll – but following the flap over his former pastor, his image as a uniter has declined. A CBS poll shows 52 percent of voters believe Obama would unite the country, down from 67 percent last month.
Perhaps most alarming for the Democratic Party, several polls also show that at least 20 percent of Democrats would vote for Senator McCain in November if their preferred Democrat does not get the nomination. If such a high defection rate were to hold all the way to November, that could hand the election to McCain.
“A lot of this is fallout from this dragging on too long and from open sores that are smarting,” says John Zogby, an independent pollster. “It’s going to be difficult healing these wounds.”
But Staff Writer Linda Feldmann points to a variety of factors that indicate the Democrats as a party are perhaps now being underestimated by the latest media conventional wisdom. She quotes TMV favorite Larry Sabato, one of the most reliable political analysts around:
Of course Democrats are concerned,” says Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville. “They’d love to have a nominee organizing for the fall. And they are concerned about the vicious things being said back and forth.”
Still, he adds, “I’ll bet you a dollar to your dime that the Democrats come back together and unite behind their candidate…. In the end, it’s the big things that matter. People will vote on the economy and the war and their feelings about President Bush and their feelings about the two candidates, period.”
And some of the positive factors for the Democrats are noted:
–The Democrats’ huge fund-raising advantage over the GOP.
–The Democrats’ record turnout during the primaries.
–Democratic registration in Pennsylvania:
The news this week that Democratic voter registration in Pennsylvania has surged to record levels, more than 4 million, compared with Republican registration of 3.2 million also bodes well for the Democrats. Some of those new “Democrats” are reportedly Republicans who plan to vote for Clinton to keep the Democratic nomination race going, but analysts say mischiefmakers are not a large part of the total. The registration numbers out of Pennsylvania “may be the most underrated news of the week,” says independent pollster Del Ali.
–Voter self-identification now works against the GOP:
Nationwide, voter self-identification also shows a major tilt toward the Democrats. According to the Pew Research Center, voters who call themselves Democrats or independents who lean Democratic now outnumber Republicans and Republican leaners by 14 points – 51 percent to 37 percent. That’s up from just a three-point gap four years ago. The wider voter-ID gap is a result of declining identification with the GOP, not a rise in identification with the Democrats.
Put it altogether and there still seem to be built in advantages for the Democrats. The Democrats’ biggest problem continues to be the solid appeal McCain has for many independent voters — even some who don’t agree with him on the war issue.
But the biggest advantage the Democrats will have is the fact that after some 8 years of the Bush administration, the Iraq war, and the decimation of the American economy there will likely be many voters who don’t have blogs or run talk radio shows who’ll decide it is simply time to “throw the bums out” and get a new bunch of bums in to try and fix the problems.
These are the voters who won’t be voting to follow the bidding or Rush Limbaugh or Randi Rhodes or any bloggers but to get some new eyes in the White House, rather than get an administration drawn from the same party that has been in charge for most of the past 8 years.
Perhaps we should call them The Big Broom voters — because their goal will be to sweep the government clean and put a new crew in.
This entry was posted on Thursday, March 27th, 2008 at 7:41 pm and is filed under Democratic Party, John McCain, Republican Party, Electoral College, Primaries, Newsweek Blogitics, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Polls, 2008 Elections, Independent Voters, Democrats, Republicans, Politics. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
