Brazilian Assumptions of a McCain Victory ‘Premature,’ ‘Reckless’
April 23rd, 2008 by WILLIAM KERN
![[The Telegraph, U.K.]](http://worldmeets.us/images/mccainpennsylvania_telegraph.gif)
Republicans might be interested to know that there are some people in the world, in this case in Brazil, who already assume that John McCain will beat either of his Democratic challengers.
But according to Paulo Sotero who writes for Brazil’s Estadoa, Brazilian elites should not only give up the idea of forecasting a U.S. election still six months away, but they should reassess a number of preconceived notions that lead them to believe that Republican presidents make better allies for Brazil.
Sotero writes in part, “To presume the result of an election that will occur more than half a year from now is as premature as it is reckless, especially when one considers the heavy legacy of the unpopular George W. Bush and the obstacles that septuagenarian McCain will face to justify Republican continuity.”
In terms favoring Republicans over Democrats, Sotero writes in part, “There is no historical evidence to support this calculation, or vice-versa … instead of speculating about who is the best candidate for Brazil in an election we can’t vote in, we must ask ourselves what our real interests are with regard to the United States.”
By Paulo Sotero
Translated By Brandi Miller
April 23, 2008
Brazil - Estadao - Original Article (Portuguese)
Brazilian commentators seem to have concluded that in terms of Brazilian interests, Republican Senator John McCain is the best candidate in the American elections and that he will win the battle on November 4th against either of his Democratic rivals, Senators Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. American voters aren’t certain which if the three would be best for the United States. The vagueness of the dispute between the Democrats illustrates the volatility of a campaign that has already labeled Hillary as an unbeatable candidate, McCain as politically dead, and Obama in command of the country’s biggest electoral mobilization in almost half a century.
Secure as the candidate of his party, McCain is the beneficiary of the exhausting war between Hillary and Obama. The accusations that the Democratic candidates exchange daily give the conservative leader ample ammunition for the decisive phase of the campaign. Certainly, McCain’s opposition to agricultural subsidies and programs to make ethanol from corn justify Brazilian affection for the Arizona senator. The same effect is produced by his recent defense of formally including Brazil and India in the G-8.
However, to presume the result of an election that will occur more than half a year from now is as premature as it is reckless, especially when one considers the heavy legacy of the unpopular George W. Bush and the obstacles that septuagenarian McCain will face to justify Republican continuity: a disastrous war in Iraq that compromised a favorable outcome in Afghanistan; the loss of the country’s international reputation; economic recession; the deterioration of the health and education systems; and a housing crisis the likes of which the U.S. hasn’t seen in decades.
Moreover, it’s naive to suppose that if elected, the Republican candidate’s preference for trade liberalization will lead to the adoption in Washington of policies that will be favorable to Brazilian interests. If that’s the way it worked, Brazil would have obtained concessions from Bush; yet the opposite happened. In 2002, the American president had no problem adopting measures to protect the U.S. steel industry in order to repay electoral debts, which harmed Brazilian exporters.
Today the possibility of liberalization is complicated by the more-than-likely expansion of Democratic majorities in the Congressional elections; a fact that should keep those working for commerce and trade deadlocked no matter who the next occupant of the White House is. Common sense and information like this which is based on reality suggest a revision of the widespread belief prevalent among the Brazilian ruling class - from entrepreneurs to the ex-revolutionary politician José Dirceu - that Republican presidents are better for Brazil than Democratic ones. There is no historical evidence to support this calculation, or vice-versa.
READ ON AT WORLDMEETS.US, along with continuing foreign press coverage of the U.S. election.
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