Arizona Senator John McCain’s victory in the Florida primary can’t yet be called “decisive” in terms of the GOP 2008 Presidential nomination race being over — but the way he won does contain some warning signs for Democrats who might think he’d be a pushover if he runs against Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in a decidedly anti-Bush year:

Drawing heavily on votes from senior citizens, Hispanics and moderates, Arizona Sen. John McCain won Tuesday in Florida, the biggest prize thus far in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

But exit polling by CNN suggests that McCain scored points in areas he wasn’t expected to. He outpaced chief rival Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who campaigned as a successful businessman, among voters who cited the economy as their chief concern.

And while losing to Romney among self-described conservatives, McCain stayed close — allowing more moderate votes in south Florida and support in the state’s military communities to push him over the top.

With 73 percent of precincts reporting, McCain had 36 percent of the vote, compared to 31 percent for Romney.

This suggests that independent voters and moderates, who had started to sour on McCain as he tried to woo elements of the Republican party that had doomed his 2000 campaign for the nomination, have given him a second chance. And, indeed, when you talk to independent voters and moderates there is a curious pattern: many of them find both McCain and Democratic Senator Barack Obama appealing, even though the two are miles apart on many issues.

The Huffington Post’s Thomas Edsall sees a chunk of McCain’s voters as coming from anti-Bush voters — and that the patterns portend a fight between McCain and the party’s hardcore conservative wing that is far from over.

As John McCain took a big step toward winning the nomination in Florida, the Republican Party looks increasingly likely to pass the torch to a candidate powered by decidedly un-Republican constituencies: anti-Bush voters, the non-religious, supporters of abortion rights, and social-cultural moderates.

The network exit polls showed patterns of support for and opposition to McCain that are highly worrisome for the conservative and religious wings of the party - patterns that are likely to serve as an incentive to runner-up Mitt Romney to continue the battle. Despite losing the primary to McCain, 31% to 36%, Romney will try to claim, as he has already done, that he is the more legitimately conservative candidate in the race, laying claim to the mantle of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.

Crucial to McCain’s win was his strength among the 25 percent of Republican primary voters who described themselves as “dissatisfied” with the Bush administration, and the 7 percent who are “angry” with the Republican White House. McCain left Romney in the dust, 45-15, among angry voters, and won by 18 points, 43-25, among the dissatisfied.

Conversely, the 19 percent of Republican voters who are “enthusiastic” about Bush backed Romney over McCain 32-27, and those who said they are “satisfied” with Bush backed Romney 37-30

One of McCain’s biggest margins, 46-25, over Romney was among the small fraction - 11 percent - of Republicans who call themselves liberal. McCain was, in addition, a solid victor, 40-22, among the 28 percent of Republican primary voters who say they are moderates.

Among the conservative core of the party, which made up fully 62 percent of GOP voters, Romney beat McCain 37-27. Among the substantial 27 percent who call themselves “very conservative,” Romney, with 44 percent support, more than doubled McCain’s 20 percent, the same percentage as won by Mike Huckabee.

The Dallas Morning News has this excellent summary of the vote:

PARTY SPLIT: John McCain’s support came from moderates, independents, Hispanics and older voters. Mitt Romney relied on conservatives but could not capitalize on his business background.

ECONOMIC ANXIETY: Nearly half of the voters said the economy is the country’s most important issue, and Mr. McCain led among those voters, blunting Mr. Romney’s pitch on pocketbook concerns.

ISSUES WATCH: Just under one in five Republicans cited illegal immigration as the biggest problem, and they mostly backed Mr. Romney. Mr. McCain, co-sponsor of a failed bipartisan immigration bill that many Republicans called too lenient, got half of the Hispanic GOP vote.

SENIORS: Senior citizens were the largest age group voting in the primary, and they supported Mr. McCain over Mr. Romney by almost a 10-point margin. Mr. McCain is 71, and his 95-year-old mother joined him on the campaign trail.

VETS: In a surprise, veterans split their vote between Mr. Romney and Mr. McCain, a Vietnam War prisoner of war who trained as a Navy pilot in Florida.

This now raises a host of questions that’ll be answered in coming weeks:

–Can McCain now win over or at least calm the fears of his party’s conservative base?

–Will conservative talk show hosts continue their campaign clamoring against McCain and essentially lumping him into the same category with Senator Teddy Kennedy and Senator Hillary Clinton? Or will they take a deep breath and if it looks as if McCain is on a roll get behind him and — as they usually do — use their shows to rally the party faithful?

–McCain continues to enjoy strong support from moderates, so how will the Democrats deal with that? Will they soon try to drive up his negatives? So far the Democrats have been busy with a circular firing squad.

–Will McCain’s years-long honeymoon with the media continue? He remains one of the most accessible candidates for reporters. Keep in mind that candidates that don’t treat reporters like bird flu carriers do have better relationships with the press and while that won’t color media stories, it can trickle out as a positive since reporters are writing about a politician who is a human being rather than one that treats them as if they are their mortal enemy.

–Can conservatives rally to stop McCain? McCain showed he could piece together a convincing coalition in Florida, partially because of who he is NOT. Can conservatives piece together a coalition to stop him?

At present, it appears as if anti-McCain conservatives are digging in their heels but their approach (mirrored in the style of the Bush administration in many ways) is to seemingly consider coalition building as a sign of weakness – when in politics it is actually a lifeline.

If it’s just hardcore conservatives who ignore coalition building against a McCain who is building a coalition (and is increasingly backed by the party’s establishment) then McCain could now be on the fast track to the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination.

HERE’S A CROSS SECTION OF WEBSITE AND WEBLOG REACTION TO McCAIN’S VICTORY:

–Pajamas Media’s Bill Bradley:

John McCain has won a somewhat larger than expected victory in Florida. It’s the first time he’s won a closed Republicans-only primary. And it came at the best possible time.

As others have already reported, Rudy Giuliani — as I foreshadowed some hours ago — is pulling out of the race. Further, he will endorse McCain tomorrow in California at the Reagan Library, site of tomorrow night’s Republican debate. McCain and Giuliani are friends, and among his top advisors are people with a mutual history working with George W. Bush and Arnold Schwarzenegger, so the arrangement was there to be had.

Mike Huckabee is staying in the race. He likes McCain, and will be drawing votes that might otherwise go to Romney. As Giuliani was doing to McCain.

Romney is continuing in the race, but the planets are coming into alignment for John McCain. In the exit polling, he was overwhelmingly the pick of Florida Republicans as the most electable, including a great many who didn’t vote for him in the primary. He won among conservatives, narrowly, and moderates, losing only among very conservative voters.

McCain leads in most of the big Super Tuesday states, including California and New York. California has been pretty close in some polls with Romney, but I’ve learned that he has just cancelled a scheduled stop in Northern California tomorrow prior to the debate outside LA.

–Washington Monthly’s Kevin Drum:

McCAIN’S BASE PROBLEM….I’m not saying anything here that we don’t already know, but the Florida exit polls confirm that John McCain has a big problem. As expected, he does well among independents and moderates, but also as expected, he does less well among Republicans and conservatives. Sure, they’ll mostly come around in November, but mostly isn’t enough. He needs 105% of the conservative base, not 95%. Remember that Karl Rove famously had to turn out four million extra conservative evangelicals just to eke out a bare win against John Kerry in 2004.

–Matthew Yglesias:

Meanwhile, it’s interesting to see McCain kissing Huckabee’s ass in his victory speech . . . could be VP material. If you squish Huckabee and McCain together, the combination looks more like a regular Republican than either does on his own.

–Andrew Sullivan has some links and raises the issue that if Hillary Clinton is the

Democrat’s nominee, the GOP could unify rather quickly. He writes:
Something has gone seriously wrong with the right when John McCain is not regarded as a conservative.

–No More Mr. Nice Blog:

If only he weren’t incredibly unlikable, it could have been Mitt Romney coasting to victory tonight. But no….

–Jules Crittenden:

Mitt Romney has hardly shown himself to be a model of consistency and has veered more wildly. In any case, as previously stated, this is a hold-your-nose election that has more to do with electability,* unpleasant alternatives and ultimately, whichever issue(s) you consider the most important. Because you aren’t going to get everything you want.

Unless your big issues are hope … and change!

* Which is as tough a question as any other: Ken-doll Mormon businessman with no appeal across party lines vs. old guy war hero loose cannon with some pull on moderates. Too late to hope anything is going to change.