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Condi Rice and the GOP’s “Black Problem”

April 8th, 2008
By JAZZ SHAW, Assistant Editor

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There was a good bit of chatter over the weekend concerning rumors that Secretary of State Condi Rice might be actively seeking the VP slot on John McCain’s presidential ticket. This is certainly not a new idea. If you traveled the blogs in the Right side of the sphere last year you probably saw numerous “Draft Condi!” buttons exhorting her fans to push the Secretary into a run for president. But how receptive would the movers and shakers of the Republican party be to the idea of Vice President Condi under President McCain? We can get a pretty good feel for this from The Weekly Standard’s Richelieu.

He is clearly dubious about the prospect, citing several reasons why Ms. Rice would not be a wise choice for the Arizona Senator’s ticket. These include (correctly, in my opinion) Condi’s background as more of a policy wonk than a politician, her inability to pull any swing states, (she’s from California which is not in play) and the fact that she would remind voters of shortcomings in the Bush administration’s early Iraq strategy. However, he also lists this telling complaint.

She would pull exactly 14 black votes away from Barack Obama.

I’m not sure if Richilieu has a specific list of 14 people or if that’s just a generalization, but it certainly has the ring of truth. In the modern era the popularity of the GOP among black Americans has been spotty, to put it generously. I’ve spoken to a number of Republican pundits who worry over this and sincerely wish that they could build a bigger tent for their party, but inroads seem hard to come by. Why is this?

First, let’s take a look at the list of currently seated black Republicans in Congress.

(Insert here the sound of crickets chirping softly in the evening.)

Ok… now that we’re done with that, perhaps we can move on to who is getting nominated for President. (Take a peek at this photograph of the ten candidates who started this race to refresh your memory.) This is a classic shot - as one Democratic friend of mine likes to say - of a stable of ROWGs. (She pronounces it “rogues” but it stands for Rich Old White Guys.) In contrast, a look at the Democratic slate tells much of this story.

There are a couple of ROWGs there, but they never really made it out of the starting gate. And standing prominently in the center we find an African American, a woman and a Hispanic gentleman.

Should this matter to the GOP? In the recent past, particularly given the number of black candidates fielded by the party, this looks like a battle the Republicans were largely willing to cede without a fight. But a look at minority voting trends in the modern era might give the Grand Old Party cause for alarm. The per capita number of black Americans turning out to vote has been steadily on the rise. In 2004 that figure rose to 12 percent of the total vote, up from 10% in 2000 and 7% a decade before that. With the massive surge in registrations being reported in every state, this figure could balloon in 2008.

And who are African Americans voting for? In 2004 John Kerry was somewhat disappointed to see that the Democrats’ share of the black vote actually fell to 88% from 90% in 2000. Particulary if Senator Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, that number could spike to a near sweep this year. If you combine an increase to the already large share of the black vote held by Democrats with swelling numbers of voters, the GOP strategy of simply writing off the African American vote could be perilous.

This is not to say that there are not any black Republicans in America. I’m a regular listener of a radio talk show each weekday hosted by a black Republican minister from Atlanta who often addresses these exact issues. (You can catch his show, The Way of the Truth, at 9 am Eastern time, Monday through Friday.) But while they do exist, the numbers are vanishingly small and I’ve yet to see much movement in the national GOP platform that would encourage large changes in the status quo. Will this be enough to swing election 2008? Ask me in seven months and I’ll get back to you.



This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 8th, 2008 at 5:17 am and is filed under Condoleezza Rice, John McCain, Black/African-American, Republican Party, Newsweek Blogitics, Racism, Barack Obama, 2008 Elections, Talk Radio, Minorities, Republicans, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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    The real question is whether black americans will ever be conservatives and thus vote for conservative politicians. The answer to that is an overwhelming no. Blacks depend more on the government, more likely to be receiving a government contract or setaside and are more likely to be employed by the government.

    A demographic group were 75% of the children are born out of wedlock, where a large portion of 20 something men are in the criminal justice system, and where only about half the high school student graduate is not going to vote for any conservative candidates.

    So the real question is will the U.S. be able to have a two party system where black vote 90% for one party, where Hispanic vote 70% for the same party, where Asian-Americans vote 65% for the same party, and where newly naturalized citizens vote overwhelmingly for the same party.
 
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