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Poll: White Democrats’ Racism Could Cost Obama White House

September 20th, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

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A new AP-Yahoo News poll finds that white Democrats’ resistance to voting for a black man for President could cost Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama the White House:

Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them “lazy,” “violent” or responsible for their own troubles.

The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 — about two and one-half percentage points.

We’ve noted repeatedly here that one of the emerging trends has been that GOP Presidential candidate Sen. John McCain has more solid Republican party base support than Obama has Democratic party base support. This poll adds yet another twist: it documents the racial aspect to the campaign — and underscores how it’s likely Obama could lose the election unless he heads into the November vote some 6 or 7 points ahead in polls.

One reason: some analysts have long argued that, on Election Day, independents will mostly break for McCain. They suggest feelings about race could play a role. Add to those voters the Democrats who don’t like blacks and Obama will need a cushion. The AP goes on:

Certainly, Republican John McCain has his own obstacles: He’s an ally of an unpopular president and would be the nation’s oldest first-term president. But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.

More than a third of all white Democrats and independents — voters Obama can’t win the White House without — agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don’t have such views.

Such numbers are a harsh dose of reality in a campaign for the history books. Obama, the first black candidate with a serious shot at the presidency, accepted the Democratic nomination on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech, a seminal moment for a nation that enshrined slavery in its Constitution.

“There are a lot fewer bigots than there were 50 years ago, but that doesn’t mean there’s only a few bigots,” said Stanford political scientist Paul Sniderman who helped analyze the exhaustive survey.

And it raises a further, often unmentionable question:

Is it likely that, in the end, Obama will wind up the 21st-century-equivalent of Al Smith, the New York Governor who ran against Herbert Hoover in 1928 and lost in a landslide due to soon-to-explode prosperity and anti-Catholic bigotry? By mid-century a Catholic named Sen. John F. Kennedy, Jr. was elected President, but it was too early for Smith in 1928. In terms of bigotry’s impact on voting, will 2008 be more like 1928 or 1960?

For more blog comment on this poll go HERE.



This entry was posted on Saturday, September 20th, 2008 at 12:02 pm and is filed under Barack Obama, John McCain, Approval Ratings, Newsweek Blogitics, Republicans, Democrats, 2008 Elections, Polls, Race, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Viewing 26 Comments

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    Just call me another old white man at the golf course but OBAMA gets my vote... I truly hope (and believe) that the dire predictions above are not the truth about what and how America is. It certainly isn't like that where I live.
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    I expected race to be a factor in this race but these numbers sound really high even to me.
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    If people choose not to vote for Barack because of race and continue to experience high gas cost, food, loss of housing, loss of jobs to overseas competition, then they can vote for McCain. John McCain believes very heavily in deregulatin or no regulation. He believes Health Care should have no regulation and that Social Security should be privitized into the stock markets. He belives that Government should have very little input into people's lives that means not raising the minimum wage, less pell grants, less money for public schools and the list goes on. But what he does believe in is "bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran and so the people of America can expect to experience more loss of young lives through wars instead of diplomacy. And, If people because of race cannot vote for Barack, then say hello to third-world conditions here in the United States. That is what they will be voting for.


    Witch Hunting Anyone?

    http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/09/19/witch-...



    http://shannynmoore.wordpress.com/
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    Most of us, meaning those of us who get out and interact in the real world on a regular basis among a variety of socio-economic types, understand that racsism is going to play a part in this election. The only question is: How much of a part is it going to play? It has become increasingly clear for sometime now that our electorate is "challenged" when it comes to weighing the evidence and making solid, coherent choices. The addition of a racial component adds yet another variable. If Obama loses this election it will, I'm afraid, be a case of a government again being tipped into power by the influence of two of the greatest enemies of any democracy: Fear and Ignorance. I hope and pray (in my own agnostic way ;-) those two enemies of our republic are sent packing this time around.
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    The numbers don't sound high to me. I live in rural white america and I can count the number of black people I see each week on one hand. That being said, and while I harbor no misgivings about blacks since I grew up around a plethora of minorities and learned that as many ignorant, stupid, lazy and violent white people who create their own problems exist as in minority populations, the majority of people I live around are prejudiced, plain and simple.

    In fact, most of the folks around here, men AND women are utterly pissed off that the choice exists between, and I quote, "That (n-word) and a woman!! (Presumably the "threat" of Palin succeeding McCain)"

    I would say based on my surroundings that the odds are much higher stacked against Obama.

    Which is why if he wants that critical lead badly enough, he needs to appeal to white idiots on an even baser level than their petty prejudices and misogyny. He needs to get inside their wallet and spell out exactly why McCain's gang (the GOP) were the people that thinned it up for him and made it so he had to cut back on his weekly budlight allowance from "the wife".

    Obama needs to keep the focus on the GOP as the source of our money crises. Obama needs (and he'll hate this) to flaunt over and over again the Clinton success-record with the previously GOP-broken economy pre-1992, turning it to a surplus. Obama needs to attack BigOil lobbying and manipulation of energy policies that greatly assisted the bankruptcy of our nation.

    If he does these things over and over like a mantra and doesn't allow McCain to divert his attention, he will win the election. McCain's people are crafty; they are wiley, wise and adaptable. They will put a spin on anything and could get you to kill your grandma in a week if they had enough time to get inside your head. He needs to expose this MO, laugh off their continual affronts and keep his nose steady on target.

    This will be a test of his focus. If he stays focused and convinces "beer-hall Joe" that the lesser of two evils is voting for the (n-word) over "the guy who made it so I can't buy brewskies anymore", then he should have the win in the bag.
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    You people are missing the point of this whole election regarding racism. In my opinion, I believe that deep down, a lot of whites are and have always been AFRAID of blacks. This doesn't mean they hate them. It's just something they can't control.
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    I think Joe is misinterpreting what this poll suggests. Joe interprets it to mean that " it’s likely Obama could lose the election unless he heads into the November vote some 6 or 7 points ahead in polls." I think a more correct interpretation is that Obama would be 6 or 7 points higher in the polls if it were not for his race.
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    Why are you even headlining this?
    We know there is racism out there and you are just fueling this.
    There is nothing we can do or change these narrow minded
    people prejudice as they are not the most intelligent people
    on the planet, so best to ignore them.
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    I think racism has appeared not from Obama as much as his supporters like P Diddy, Oprah and Whoopie Goldberg who are rude and angry towards his opponents. This behavior scares the white audience since it is based on their prejudice and anger against whites. I feel Obama has tried to lead a political campaign that hasn't been focused on race ; however, the people surrounding him and supporting him create this division that can be sensed by the white audience. This is very sad because having P Diddy slander McCain and Palin in the name of Obama creates race wars. I hope these archaic race games stop so all can unite and build a better America. I don't want an ' Old boys Black Network wither" like the one that existed WIith the leadership at Fannie Mae or the " Old Boys white Network"..can we really have change ? I pray we can for the children and the foundation of this beautiful and amazing country.
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