Sabato’s Crystal Ball: DOUBLE FEATURE!
April 18th, 2008
By HOLLY IN CINCINNATI, Copy Editor
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Larry J. Sabato on HOW COULD JOHN McCAIN WIN IN NOVEMBER? History versus circumstance in the general election PLUS Alan I. Abramowitz on WILL DISAPPOINTED DEMS VOTE FOR MCCAIN? Crossover voting and defection in past elections
It’s obvious to just about everyone that, at least theoretically, the Democrats have a near-perfect climate for presidential victory in 2008. A deeply unpopular Republican President is mired around 30 percent in the polls; last week, Bush was at 28 percent, a couple points higher than Richard Nixon on the day he resigned. Bush hasn’t seen majority backing in three years or even a miserable 40 percent support level in two years. General Petraeus’ optimism notwithstanding, a large majority of Americans believe that the Iraq war wasn’t worth fighting and should be phased out as soon as reasonably possible. The economy has tanked, gas prices are through the roof, and an incredible eight in ten Americans think the country is seriously off on the wrong track — usually a death knell for the White House party.
John McCain, as the nominee of the Republican Party, is saddled with the legacy of the 30 percent President. He spends much of his time defending and advocating the out-of-favor Iraq War. He admits that he knows relatively little about economics and hasn’t focused on the subject during his decades in Congress. If elected, McCain would be the oldest first-term President, but this appears to be a time when the public is seeking to turn the page and start afresh. McCain has raised so little money by comparison to both his Democratic opponents that it has become a lingering embarrassment. And you tell us that McCain has a chance to win?
Well, yes. We wouldn’t bet on him just now, and if he wins, it will likely be a minimal Electoral College majority. Still, it’s more than theoretical that McCain could pull off an upset. Actually, the word “upset” doesn’t quite capture the significance of his possible victory. Based on 220 years of precedent, a McCain win would be a striking repudiation of American history, since no presidential candidate of a two-term incumbent party has ever been elected under this set of severely adverse conditions.
April is not November, but McCain has some reason for optimism if one looks at the recent polling. Sometimes McCain is up a few points on Obama and Clinton, and sometimes he’s down a few points, but it’s fair to call the election a tie today. Obama does a bit better than Clinton when matched against McCain but not consistently or substantially so.
Democratic leaders are becoming increasingly worried about the long-term consequences of the drawn-out and contentious presidential nomination race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. In the past few weeks a number of prominent Democratic elected officials, including Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, have called on Hillary Clinton to consider ending her campaign in the near future on the grounds that by staying in the race she is damaging the party’s chances of winning the presidency in November. Pundits and journalists have also argued that the extended nomination battle between Clinton and Obama is allowing the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain, to get a head start on the general election campaign while the two Democrats are training their fire on each other.
This entry was posted on Friday, April 18th, 2008 at 9:35 pm and is filed under Barack Obama, John McCain, Newsweek Blogitics, Hillary Clinton, Republicans, 2008 Elections, Democrats, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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